Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.Enlarge image
7 Aralık 2012 Cuma
Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds
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Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.Enlarge image
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building stands in Washington, D.C., U.S. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergEnlarge image
Barack Obama, US president, warned of “prolonged negotiations.” Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergEnlarge image
Walt Disney sold a record amount of debt last week at the lowest interest cost it’s ever paid. Photographer: Jonathan Alcorn/BloombergEven after U.S. public borrowings outstanding grew from less than $9 trillion in 2007 as the U.S. raised cash to pay for spending programs designed to pull the economy out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, rising demand coupled with a drop in net supply means bonds will be scarce.“The shrinking amount of bonds in the market is lowering rates and not just benefiting the Treasury, but providing lower rates for private-sector decision-makers as well,” Zach Pandl, a senior interest-rate strategist in Minneapolis at Columbia Management Investment Advisers LLC, which oversees $340 billion, said in a Nov. 30 telephone interview. “The Fed is not creating this scarcity to help out the Treasury, it’s primarily to get the economy going.”
Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.Enlarge image
Olive Garden parent Darden suffers from bad specials, 'Obamacare'
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Actually I think they suffer from stupid management. QB
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By Tiffany Hsu
December 4, 2012, 8:35 a.m.
Darden Restaurants Inc. won’t be looking as good as expected next week when the restaurant company is set to release its second-quarter earnings, it said Tuesday.The Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouseparent lowered its profit and revenue projections for the quarter ended Nov. 25, blaming sour promotions in its eateries, Superstorm Sandy, its purchase of the Yard House USA chain and even its efforts to mitigate the coming costs ofhealthcare reform, also known as "Obamacare."Earnings per share from continuing operations over the period will come in at 25 to 26 cents, Darden said. The October tempest on the East Coast cut EPS by one cent, while the July purchase of Irvine-based Yard House dropped it down another 5 cents.Wall Street had expected EPS of more than 45 cents a share.Quiz: How well do you know fast food?Darden forecast same-store sales at Olive Garden slumping 3.2% as revenue at Red Lobster dipped 2.7% and 0.8% at LongHorn. But at the company’s specialty restaurants, including the Bahama Breeze and Seasons 52 chains, sales are expected to get a 0.7% boost.Recent promotional offers also didn’t resonate well with “financially stretched consumers,” especially as “newer promotions from competitors” lured them away, said Darden Chief Executive Clarence Otis in a statement.The company’s “cautious” outlook also reflects the impact “of negative media coverage that focused on Darden…and how we might accommodate healthcare reform.”Earlier in the fall, Darden tested plans to cut back on healthcare costs by putting more workers on part-time schedules. President Obama’s healthcare law would slap Darden and other large companies with fines unless they offer basic health insurance for full-time workers.The restaurant industry has bemoaned the requirement as a calamitous blow in an industry that operates on razor-thin margins. Darden has more than 2,000 restaurants and more than 185,000 employees.“We are also committed to accommodating healthcare reform in ways that work for our employees and guests,” Otis said.For the 2013 fiscal year, Darden said it expected earnings per share of $3.29 to $3.49, a more pessimistic view from its earlier estimate of $3.76 to $3.90.Net revenue is expected to grow 7.5% to 8.5% overall, down from previous projections of 9% to 10% expansion. Same store sales for Red Lobster, Olive Garden and LongHorn, however, will likely be negative or flat for the year, the company said.In morning trading in New York, Darden stock fell as much as 10.3% to $47.03 a share on the news. S&P Capital IQ lowered its call on the company to hold from buy.“We think traffic will stay weak, as consumers continue to shift to lower-priced menu offerings,” wrote analyst Jim Yin in a note to investors. “We also see margin pressure from rising commodity prices.”Darden will release final earnings results on Dec. 20.http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-olive-garden-darden-obamacare-20121204,0,6293689.story
By Tiffany Hsu
December 4, 2012, 8:35 a.m.
Darden Restaurants Inc. won’t be looking as good as expected next week when the restaurant company is set to release its second-quarter earnings, it said Tuesday.The Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouseparent lowered its profit and revenue projections for the quarter ended Nov. 25, blaming sour promotions in its eateries, Superstorm Sandy, its purchase of the Yard House USA chain and even its efforts to mitigate the coming costs ofhealthcare reform, also known as "Obamacare."Earnings per share from continuing operations over the period will come in at 25 to 26 cents, Darden said. The October tempest on the East Coast cut EPS by one cent, while the July purchase of Irvine-based Yard House dropped it down another 5 cents.Wall Street had expected EPS of more than 45 cents a share.Quiz: How well do you know fast food?Darden forecast same-store sales at Olive Garden slumping 3.2% as revenue at Red Lobster dipped 2.7% and 0.8% at LongHorn. But at the company’s specialty restaurants, including the Bahama Breeze and Seasons 52 chains, sales are expected to get a 0.7% boost.Recent promotional offers also didn’t resonate well with “financially stretched consumers,” especially as “newer promotions from competitors” lured them away, said Darden Chief Executive Clarence Otis in a statement.The company’s “cautious” outlook also reflects the impact “of negative media coverage that focused on Darden…and how we might accommodate healthcare reform.”Earlier in the fall, Darden tested plans to cut back on healthcare costs by putting more workers on part-time schedules. President Obama’s healthcare law would slap Darden and other large companies with fines unless they offer basic health insurance for full-time workers.The restaurant industry has bemoaned the requirement as a calamitous blow in an industry that operates on razor-thin margins. Darden has more than 2,000 restaurants and more than 185,000 employees.“We are also committed to accommodating healthcare reform in ways that work for our employees and guests,” Otis said.For the 2013 fiscal year, Darden said it expected earnings per share of $3.29 to $3.49, a more pessimistic view from its earlier estimate of $3.76 to $3.90.Net revenue is expected to grow 7.5% to 8.5% overall, down from previous projections of 9% to 10% expansion. Same store sales for Red Lobster, Olive Garden and LongHorn, however, will likely be negative or flat for the year, the company said.In morning trading in New York, Darden stock fell as much as 10.3% to $47.03 a share on the news. S&P Capital IQ lowered its call on the company to hold from buy.“We think traffic will stay weak, as consumers continue to shift to lower-priced menu offerings,” wrote analyst Jim Yin in a note to investors. “We also see margin pressure from rising commodity prices.”Darden will release final earnings results on Dec. 20.http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-olive-garden-darden-obamacare-20121204,0,6293689.story
British retailer gives up on U.S. supermarkets
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I'd say that the Greatest Worldwide Depression moves on. I noticed yesterday when I went to pick up my Dad in a quaint little town of Winter Park that the main drag called Park Avenue sure had a lot of empty storefronts. This is where the rich (much like Rodeo Drive) went shopping. QB
LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The Fresh & Easy chain has been put up for sale, as U.K. retail powerhouse Tesco admitted defeat in its attempt to take on established supermarkets in the United States.Tesco launched Fresh & Easy in California in 2007, hoping its chain of smaller stores would draw customers away from large Wal-Mart (WMT,Fortune 500) or Safeway (SWY, Fortune 500)supermarkets.But Tesco (TSCDF)underestimated the reluctance of shoppers to change their buying habits, and has been forced to retreat after five years of losses and a total investment of about $1.6 billion.Fresh & Easy CEO Tim Mason, who has been with Tesco for 30 years, will leave the company."It is now clear that Fresh & Easy will not deliver acceptable shareholder returns on an appropriate time frame in its current form," Tesco said in a statement.Related: Deal reached in California port strikeBoutique investment bank Greenhill will conduct a strategic review of the U.S. business. All options are being considered."In recent months, we have had a number of approaches from parties interested in acquiring either all or part of Fresh & Easy, or in partnering with us to develop the Fresh & Easy business," the company said.The results of the review will be announced along with full-year financial figures in April.Fresh & Easy's woes have added to the problems Tesco faces in the U.K and other international markets. Third-quarter sales at stores open a year or more fell company-wide by 1.3%, as depressed consumer spending in the U.K. and Europe outweighed an improvement in Asia. Tesco's share of the U.K. market is also declining.http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/05/news/companies/tesco-fresh-easy/This cannot be good for Boeing. Didn't the French also try to make a plane too big for their britches? Ah Yes, we all remember the Airbus A380. How much money went down that rathole? QBBoeing 787 Dreamliner hit by mechanical issues, prompts fleet-wide FAA investigationA United Boeing 787 Dreamliner was forced to perform an emergency landing yesterday following reports of electrical problems onboard. According to The Aviation Herald, the flight was diverted to New Orleans after the crew raised concerns over the electrical equipment bay, but no problems were found by fire crews once the plane was safely on the ground.The emergency landing came on the same day that the Federal Aviation Administrationordered mandatory inspections of Boeing 787s following word of fuel line issues. Two international airlines, All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines, reported fuel leaks during flights of their own Dreamliners despite thorough inspections. The fuel line issues have now been fixed by both airlines, and a spokesperson for Boeing has confirmed withBloomberg that the electrical problems were unrelated.

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The Fresh & Easy chain has been put up for sale, as U.K. retail powerhouse Tesco admitted defeat in its attempt to take on established supermarkets in the United States.Tesco launched Fresh & Easy in California in 2007, hoping its chain of smaller stores would draw customers away from large Wal-Mart (WMT,Fortune 500) or Safeway (SWY, Fortune 500)supermarkets.But Tesco (TSCDF)underestimated the reluctance of shoppers to change their buying habits, and has been forced to retreat after five years of losses and a total investment of about $1.6 billion.Fresh & Easy CEO Tim Mason, who has been with Tesco for 30 years, will leave the company."It is now clear that Fresh & Easy will not deliver acceptable shareholder returns on an appropriate time frame in its current form," Tesco said in a statement.Related: Deal reached in California port strikeBoutique investment bank Greenhill will conduct a strategic review of the U.S. business. All options are being considered."In recent months, we have had a number of approaches from parties interested in acquiring either all or part of Fresh & Easy, or in partnering with us to develop the Fresh & Easy business," the company said.The results of the review will be announced along with full-year financial figures in April.Fresh & Easy's woes have added to the problems Tesco faces in the U.K and other international markets. Third-quarter sales at stores open a year or more fell company-wide by 1.3%, as depressed consumer spending in the U.K. and Europe outweighed an improvement in Asia. Tesco's share of the U.K. market is also declining.http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/05/news/companies/tesco-fresh-easy/This cannot be good for Boeing. Didn't the French also try to make a plane too big for their britches? Ah Yes, we all remember the Airbus A380. How much money went down that rathole? QBBoeing 787 Dreamliner hit by mechanical issues, prompts fleet-wide FAA investigationA United Boeing 787 Dreamliner was forced to perform an emergency landing yesterday following reports of electrical problems onboard. According to The Aviation Herald, the flight was diverted to New Orleans after the crew raised concerns over the electrical equipment bay, but no problems were found by fire crews once the plane was safely on the ground.The emergency landing came on the same day that the Federal Aviation Administrationordered mandatory inspections of Boeing 787s following word of fuel line issues. Two international airlines, All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines, reported fuel leaks during flights of their own Dreamliners despite thorough inspections. The fuel line issues have now been fixed by both airlines, and a spokesperson for Boeing has confirmed withBloomberg that the electrical problems were unrelated.
THE BOEING 787 IS EXTREMELY RARE THANKS TO YEARS OF DELAYSWhile the technical issues are a cause for concern, the state-of-the-art Dreamliner only recently went into service in the United States. United Airlines currently has two Boeing 787s in service on domestic routes, with the airline having put in orders for 50 planes. The aircraft is still extremely rare overall too — Boeing has only delivered 33 as of October, with All Nippon Airways accounting for 16 by itself. Still, the latest problems are another blow for Boeing, who delivered the initial Dreamliner orders three and a half years late due to the more complex materials and construction methods used in building the plane.http://www.theverge.com/2012/12/5/3730554/boeing-787-dreamliner-mechnical-issues
A Good Deal Will Raise Tax Rates, Fix Entitlements
By Peter Orszag Dec 4, 2012 6:30 PM ETAlthough it isn’t yet time to panic about the fiscal cliff, negotiations so far aren’t exactly going well. The Republicans are committing themselves to an unsustainable principle of no marginaltax-rate increases whatsoever. And the Democrats are failing to seize the moment to make progressive reforms to Medicare and Social Security.There’s still time to come to an agreement to prevent the more than $600 billion in federal spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January while also raising the debt limit, but both sides will need to get out of the boxes they have put themselves in.About Peter R Orszag»
Peter R. Orszag, vice chairman of corporate and investment banking at Citigroup and an adjunct senior fellow at ... MOREMore from Peter R Orszag:
- Vague Plans to Limit Tax Breaks Will Soon DieQ
- China’s New Leaders Face an Economic Turning PointQ
- White House Should Be Ready for a Debt-Limit DealQ
Waning Support
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/a-good-deal-will-raise-tax-rates-fix-entitlements.htmlRepublican Defectors Ready to Back Tax-Rate Compromise
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A few dozen Republicans have joined a bipartisan call to break the impasse between PresidentBarack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner over taxes for the highest- earning Americans.
Obama and Boehner spoke by telephone this afternoon, Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said without giving details. A White House aide also confirmed the call, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Republicans signed a letter calling for exploration of “all options” on taxes and entitlement programs, a signal that some rank-and-file members are ready to bargain.One of the petition leaders, Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, says he could accept higher rates for married couples earning more than $500,000 a year, in exchange for an overhaul of spending on entitlements such as Medicare.Separately, Representative Kay Granger of Texas is endorsing Oklahoma Republican Tom Cole’s call to extend all tax cuts for middle-class earners as “just the right thing to do.”What unifies these lawmakers is a recognition that Obama’s re-election has strengthened his hand in negotiations aimed at averting more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January. The letter’s approximately 80 signers are half-Republican, half-Democratic, according to Simpson spokeswoman Nikki Watts.
Obama and Boehner spoke by telephone this afternoon, Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said without giving details. A White House aide also confirmed the call, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Republicans signed a letter calling for exploration of “all options” on taxes and entitlement programs, a signal that some rank-and-file members are ready to bargain.One of the petition leaders, Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, says he could accept higher rates for married couples earning more than $500,000 a year, in exchange for an overhaul of spending on entitlements such as Medicare.Separately, Representative Kay Granger of Texas is endorsing Oklahoma Republican Tom Cole’s call to extend all tax cuts for middle-class earners as “just the right thing to do.”What unifies these lawmakers is a recognition that Obama’s re-election has strengthened his hand in negotiations aimed at averting more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January. The letter’s approximately 80 signers are half-Republican, half-Democratic, according to Simpson spokeswoman Nikki Watts.
‘Pretty Obvious’
“It’s pretty obvious Obama won the election, and he promised he was going to raise taxes on the wealthiest,” Simpson said in an interview. “What Republicans said is, ‘We’ve got to have entitlement reform.’”While it may be an unpalatable trade for both sides, he said, “There’s enough sane people left to get it done.”The White House budget office sent a letter to federal agencies this week to collect last-minute information and to prepare for possible automatic spending cuts in January if they aren’t modified or canceled by Congress, Obama press secretaryJay Carney said.He said the Office of Management and Budget was making contingency plans and sought the information to “finalize calculations on the spending reductions that would be required.”Stocks Rise
Stocks rose after a two-day drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,409.27 at 4 p.m. New York time, after falling as much as 0.6 percent earlier. Treasury 10-year note yields fell one basis point to 1.59 percent at 2:59 p.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.A trade-off of higher taxes for entitlement spending cuts would require Boehner, an Ohio Republican, to persuade more than 100 of his majority party members to join House Democrats in approving a deal.Representative Steve LaTourette of Ohio said Boehner could get the 218 votes needed to send a tax increase to the Democratic-run Senate if about 120 House Democrats “buy in” to entitlement cuts, such as raising the eligibility age for Medicare or adjusting the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.Over the Line
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-05/republican-defectors-ready-to-back-tax-rate-compromise.htmlReport Bolsters the Case for Large U.S. Natural Gas Exports
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
Published: December 5, 2012
HOUSTON — In a finding that could help create a new industry ofnatural gas exports in the United States, a government study released on Wednesday concluded that the national economic benefits of significant natural gas exports far outweighed the potential for higher energy prices for consumers and industrial users of the fuel. Enlarge This Image
Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times
To adopt to changing energy needs, Dominion Cove Point LNG in Lusby, Maryland, is being converted from a liquefied natural gas terminal to an export terminal.
A blog about energy and the environment.Go to Blog »The study prepared by NERA Economic Consulting for the Energy Department, said that domestic prices would not rise sharply as a result of exports and that export revenue would generally help most Americans.Energy companies have proposed more than a dozen projects to export gas in liquefied form to Europe and Asia, where the fuel is typically three to four times more expensive than in the United States. The Obama administration has been cautious on whether to embrace large exports of gas out of concern that consumers who rely on gas for heating and cooking could see their utility prices rise. Higher exports could also raise costs to manufacturers that now benefit from the nation’s glut of cheap gas, like chemical and fertilizer manufacturers.But the huge gas export terminals, which cost billions of dollars to set up, would also generate thousands of construction jobs, spur further development of natural gas fields and generate lucrative export earnings.The administration has only approved one export terminal so far, by Cheniere Energy in Louisiana, saying it was waiting for the results of the economic study before making decisions on the rest of the projects.Now that the report has been finished, most observers expect more projects to get the green light.The report found that higher exports would actually generate more economic benefits. Noting that gas exports could produce up to $47 billion in new economic activity in 2020, when many new terminals would be up and running, it said, “Welfare improvement is highest under the high export volume scenarios because U.S. consumers benefit from an increase in wealth transfer and export revenues.”Only a decade ago, it appeared that the country’s domestic gas supplies were drying up and that huge amounts of expensive gas in liquefied form would have to be imported from Trinidad, Africa and the Middle East. But over the last few years, a technological revolution has occurred in shale gas fields across the country, driven by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. That has produced a glut that has driven the price of natural gas down by two-thirds since 2008.http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/06/business/energy-environment/government-report-bolsters-the-case-for-large-us-natural-gas-exports.html
Banks gird for new world as Citi cuts 11K jobs
9:59PM EST December 5. 2012 - Citigroup's plan to cut 11,000 jobs is far from the first big downsizing Wall Street firms have executed since the 2008 financial crisis. And it won't be the last.The nation's third-biggest bank is the latest in a series of financial institutions to cut large numbers of jobs. Behind the cuts is new CEO Michael Corbat's push to improve Citi's performance — and free up cash flow so it can boost its paltry stock dividend, currently just a penny a share. But Citi, like its rivals, also faces pressures from new international regulations that will require banks to boost their capital to protect against future crises and new U.S. regulations flowing from the Dodd-Frank Act that are designed to limit banks' risk-taking.Indeed, while Citi's news Wednesday isn't likely to set off a short-term wave of layoffs, it's part of a broader trend toward an economy that depends much less on the finance industry for jobs and growth than it did before 2008, analysts say. Since the job market bottomed out in 2010, finance has added only 94,000 of the 5 million net new private-sector jobs, according to government data. Before the recession, finance accounted for nearly 6% of private-sector jobs and 22% of the value of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index."We're moving from an economy where we package financial products to one where we build more things, like products and roads,'' said Nancy Bush, a banking analyst at SNL Financial. "Consumers have reduced their debt, governments will reduce their borrowing, As that happens, everything driven by the financial economy will shrink. Whether people like it or not doesn't matter.''In Citi's case, the moves were overdue, said Michael Mayo, an analyst at Credit Agricole, a persistent Citi critic who this week recommended its shares for the first time in years.Citi's specific problem is it is under-profitable even by the standards of post-crisis banks, Mayo said. It has been less than half as profitable as rival JPMorgan Chase in the last 12 months. Corbat, who took over when Citi dismissed his predecessor, Vikram Pandit, in October, is the first Citi CEO in years to deal aggressively with the bank's high overhead, Mayo said."CEOs 1 through 4 couldn't get it right,'' Mayo said, cracking wise about Citi's executive turnover since Sandy Weill left the top job in 2003. "I didn't think CEO No. 5 would be any better.''Citi's cuts had little directly to do with the changing rules. The bank has made progress toward meeting future capital standards that will phase in next year through 2019. Its capital base has grown 20% so far this year, leaving a cushion of cash and securities worth 8.6% of its risk-adjusted assets (mostly outstanding loans and trading positions) to guard against future losses, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said at an investor conference sponsored by Goldman Sachs Wednesday.More than half of the jobs Citi will cut are in information technology and other support areas, Citi said. Other cuts included selling or shrinking the bank's consumer businesses in offshore markets, including Pakistan, Paraguay, Romania and Turkey. Sticking with its strategy to focus on 150 cities globally where it sees the greatest potential growth in consumer banking, Citi also will close 84 branches worldwide, including 44 in the U.S.http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/12/05/citi-banking-industry/1749139/The Era of American Austerity Is About to Begin
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Published: Tuesday, 4 Dec 2012 | 9:52 AM ETBy: Bob PisaniThough the Republicans and President Barack Obama seem far apart, we can already see the elements of the deal: modest tax raises and some spending cuts.The bad news: The era of American Austerity is about to begin.The good news: It will be a fairly gentle austerity, at least in the beginning. Housing and autos are improving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to expand its quantitative easing operations at the next meeting on Dec. 12, which will provide some cushion against austerity.And, in the meantime, U.S. corporations are parting with record amounts of cash to pay out dividends early.Elsewhere:1) Toll Brothers: another homerun. The high-end builders like Toll Brothers are really firing on all cylinders. Orders were up 70 percent, well above everyone's estimate. Gross margins also improved. Full-year 2013 guidance for home deliveries (a key metric) were conservative.The U.S. housing recovery has fueled builders and building materials this year as prices for single-family homes have increased since February. "Pent-up demand, rising home prices, low interest rates, and improving consumer confidence motivated buyers to return to the housing market in FY 2012," said Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley.But there's a big problem with Toll Brothers: It's really expensive. Really expensive. Trading for close to 30 times 2013 earnings. Really. That's expensive, and even though other home builders are trading in the 20s as well, Toll Brothers is at the top.2) The bidding may be heating up for Knight Capital Group, which last week was the subject of two offers, from Virtu Financial and Getco. According to The Wall Street Journal, Cerberus may come in to join Virtu's bid for Knight.Why does Cerberus need to step in? No one has said, but the obvious answer is that Virtu does not have the cash on hand to close the deal.It's a lot of cash. Depending on who you talk to, it has to come up with roughly $1 billion for the company, plus another $500 million to cover debt, so it needs at least $1.5 billion, plus enough money to run the operations, so figure maybe $1.8 billion or so.That's likely where Cerberus steps in.Speaking of deals, how about telling us exactly how much you (Virtu) plan to offer for Knight? We still don't know exactly what Virtu is offering, only that it is above $3. This makes it pretty difficult to figure out which firm is offering a better deal.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100274974
What a flop!Apple’s $37 plus, 6.43 percent sell off was surreal. The world’s largest and most profitable company giving up almost $40 billion of market value while the rest of the market basically yawned? That doesn’t happen often.The Apple selling on big volume could have been used to finance a move into the financials. Bank of America was up over 5 percent and Citicorp tacked on over 6 percent.Apple sits right at its .618 Fib retracement of the $88 bounce from $505.75. We still think they will be blow out this quarter’s earnings, but the stock is over owned and the bears know it.Thus technicals will dominate Apple in the short-term, especially with the Vampire Cross (death cross) staring traders in the face. The 50-day moving average looks to crossover the 200-day in the next week.Note Apple peaked two days before the big market sell off began in September and we think today’s action in the stock does not bode well for the overall market. Could be wrong, but that’s how we see it.
(click here if chart is not observable)
Published: Tuesday, 4 Dec 2012 | 9:52 AM ETBy: Bob PisaniThough the Republicans and President Barack Obama seem far apart, we can already see the elements of the deal: modest tax raises and some spending cuts.The bad news: The era of American Austerity is about to begin.The good news: It will be a fairly gentle austerity, at least in the beginning. Housing and autos are improving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to expand its quantitative easing operations at the next meeting on Dec. 12, which will provide some cushion against austerity.And, in the meantime, U.S. corporations are parting with record amounts of cash to pay out dividends early.Elsewhere:1) Toll Brothers: another homerun. The high-end builders like Toll Brothers are really firing on all cylinders. Orders were up 70 percent, well above everyone's estimate. Gross margins also improved. Full-year 2013 guidance for home deliveries (a key metric) were conservative.The U.S. housing recovery has fueled builders and building materials this year as prices for single-family homes have increased since February. "Pent-up demand, rising home prices, low interest rates, and improving consumer confidence motivated buyers to return to the housing market in FY 2012," said Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley.But there's a big problem with Toll Brothers: It's really expensive. Really expensive. Trading for close to 30 times 2013 earnings. Really. That's expensive, and even though other home builders are trading in the 20s as well, Toll Brothers is at the top.2) The bidding may be heating up for Knight Capital Group, which last week was the subject of two offers, from Virtu Financial and Getco. According to The Wall Street Journal, Cerberus may come in to join Virtu's bid for Knight.Why does Cerberus need to step in? No one has said, but the obvious answer is that Virtu does not have the cash on hand to close the deal.It's a lot of cash. Depending on who you talk to, it has to come up with roughly $1 billion for the company, plus another $500 million to cover debt, so it needs at least $1.5 billion, plus enough money to run the operations, so figure maybe $1.8 billion or so.That's likely where Cerberus steps in.Speaking of deals, how about telling us exactly how much you (Virtu) plan to offer for Knight? We still don't know exactly what Virtu is offering, only that it is above $3. This makes it pretty difficult to figure out which firm is offering a better deal.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100274974
Apple’s Jaw Dropping Flop
What a flop!Apple’s $37 plus, 6.43 percent sell off was surreal. The world’s largest and most profitable company giving up almost $40 billion of market value while the rest of the market basically yawned? That doesn’t happen often.The Apple selling on big volume could have been used to finance a move into the financials. Bank of America was up over 5 percent and Citicorp tacked on over 6 percent.Apple sits right at its .618 Fib retracement of the $88 bounce from $505.75. We still think they will be blow out this quarter’s earnings, but the stock is over owned and the bears know it.Thus technicals will dominate Apple in the short-term, especially with the Vampire Cross (death cross) staring traders in the face. The 50-day moving average looks to crossover the 200-day in the next week.Note Apple peaked two days before the big market sell off began in September and we think today’s action in the stock does not bode well for the overall market. Could be wrong, but that’s how we see it.
30 Kasım 2012 Cuma
What Is the 'Fiscal Cliff?
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From CNBCBy: Mark Koba
Senior EditorThe 'fiscal cliff' may sound like the name of an exercise retreat on a mountain top in Southern California, but the reality is not so pretty.What 'fiscal cliff' actually refers to is the potentially dire economic situation the U.S. faces at the end of 2012. The now infamous phrase was coined by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in February 2012, during one of his required appearances before Congress on the state of the U.S. economy. He described ... "a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases" on Jan. 1, 2013. Since then, 'fiscal cliff' has taken on legendary status as a harbinger of economic gloom and doom. (Read More: Why "Rise Above?')So what does the 'fiscal cliff' trigger for the economy and how bad can it be? Here's a look.How does the fiscal cliff come about?At midnight on Dec. 31, 2012, a major provision of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) is scheduled to go into effect. This was the deal signed by President Obama in August 2011 to end the Congressional battle over raising the government debt ceiling.The Act was a compromise between Democrats and Republicans on economic policies while temporarily increasing the debt ceiling — the amount of money the government could borrow from itself to pay its bills.The crucial part of the Act provided for a Joint Select Committee of Congressional Democrats and Republicans — the so called 'Supercommittee '— to produce bipartisan legislation by late November 2012 that would decrease the U.S. deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years.To do so, the committee agreed to implement by law — if no other deal was reached before Dec. 31 — massive government spending cuts as well as tax increases or a return to tax levels from previous years. These are the elements that make up the 'fiscal cliff.'What laws from the Budget Control Act will go into place?Among them are the end of 2011's temporary payroll tax cuts — the result of which will be a 2 percent tax increase for most workers.There will also be an end to several tax breaks for businesses, and changes in the alternative minimum tax (AMT) that could result in more people having to pay — the income range is currently between $45,000 and $200,000 — and higher tax payments for those who do.Several of these existing tax breaks came from the George W. Bush tax cut bill of 2001, which were extended under President Obama until the end of 2012.There will also be tax increases for higher income individuals to help pay for theAffordable Health Care Act (so-called ObamaCare).At the same time, spending cuts will take place in more than 1,000 government programs, including cuts in the defense budget as well as social programs like Medicare, through 2022.But some programs are exempt from the BCA. Those are Social Security, federal pensions and veterans' benefits.What is the impact of the tax increases and budget cuts?While higher taxes and spending cuts would reduce the U.S. budget deficit by an estimated $560 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the policies from the BCA would cut gross domestic product by four percentage points in 2013. Many analysts say that would likely send the still-struggling U.S. economy into a recession, if not a depression, as the financial markets would likely go into a tailspin while businesses and consumers both cut back on spending.As a result of the economic slowdown from the stilted GDP growth, the CBO also predicts unemployment would rise by almost a full percentage point, with a loss of about two million jobs.Can anything be done to prevent the 'Fiscal Cliff' from happening?The major problem has been getting Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House to agree on budgetary policy for the future. Republicans say they want cuts in government spending to reduce the country's deficit without raising taxes. For their part, Democrats say they want spending cuts with certain taxes raised.There have been calls to extend some or all of the tax cuts and to replace the massive cutbacks in government spending with more targeted reductions. Some proposals include repealing the BCA altogether and just keeping what exists now until another agreement can be reached.But so far, there is no consensus on what to do, and some analysts say nothing might happen to avoid the 'fiscal cliff' until the last week in December.There is one ace in the hole, so to speak. Even if the BCA deadline comes and nothing is done, Congress can still act to change laws retroactively if it chooses.http://www.cnbc.com/id/49464221/What_Is_the_Fiscal_Cliff
From CNBCBy: Mark Koba
Senior EditorThe 'fiscal cliff' may sound like the name of an exercise retreat on a mountain top in Southern California, but the reality is not so pretty.What 'fiscal cliff' actually refers to is the potentially dire economic situation the U.S. faces at the end of 2012. The now infamous phrase was coined by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in February 2012, during one of his required appearances before Congress on the state of the U.S. economy. He described ... "a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases" on Jan. 1, 2013. Since then, 'fiscal cliff' has taken on legendary status as a harbinger of economic gloom and doom. (Read More: Why "Rise Above?')So what does the 'fiscal cliff' trigger for the economy and how bad can it be? Here's a look.How does the fiscal cliff come about?At midnight on Dec. 31, 2012, a major provision of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) is scheduled to go into effect. This was the deal signed by President Obama in August 2011 to end the Congressional battle over raising the government debt ceiling.The Act was a compromise between Democrats and Republicans on economic policies while temporarily increasing the debt ceiling — the amount of money the government could borrow from itself to pay its bills.The crucial part of the Act provided for a Joint Select Committee of Congressional Democrats and Republicans — the so called 'Supercommittee '— to produce bipartisan legislation by late November 2012 that would decrease the U.S. deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years.To do so, the committee agreed to implement by law — if no other deal was reached before Dec. 31 — massive government spending cuts as well as tax increases or a return to tax levels from previous years. These are the elements that make up the 'fiscal cliff.'What laws from the Budget Control Act will go into place?Among them are the end of 2011's temporary payroll tax cuts — the result of which will be a 2 percent tax increase for most workers.There will also be an end to several tax breaks for businesses, and changes in the alternative minimum tax (AMT) that could result in more people having to pay — the income range is currently between $45,000 and $200,000 — and higher tax payments for those who do.Several of these existing tax breaks came from the George W. Bush tax cut bill of 2001, which were extended under President Obama until the end of 2012.There will also be tax increases for higher income individuals to help pay for theAffordable Health Care Act (so-called ObamaCare).At the same time, spending cuts will take place in more than 1,000 government programs, including cuts in the defense budget as well as social programs like Medicare, through 2022.But some programs are exempt from the BCA. Those are Social Security, federal pensions and veterans' benefits.What is the impact of the tax increases and budget cuts?While higher taxes and spending cuts would reduce the U.S. budget deficit by an estimated $560 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the policies from the BCA would cut gross domestic product by four percentage points in 2013. Many analysts say that would likely send the still-struggling U.S. economy into a recession, if not a depression, as the financial markets would likely go into a tailspin while businesses and consumers both cut back on spending.As a result of the economic slowdown from the stilted GDP growth, the CBO also predicts unemployment would rise by almost a full percentage point, with a loss of about two million jobs.Can anything be done to prevent the 'Fiscal Cliff' from happening?The major problem has been getting Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House to agree on budgetary policy for the future. Republicans say they want cuts in government spending to reduce the country's deficit without raising taxes. For their part, Democrats say they want spending cuts with certain taxes raised.There have been calls to extend some or all of the tax cuts and to replace the massive cutbacks in government spending with more targeted reductions. Some proposals include repealing the BCA altogether and just keeping what exists now until another agreement can be reached.But so far, there is no consensus on what to do, and some analysts say nothing might happen to avoid the 'fiscal cliff' until the last week in December.There is one ace in the hole, so to speak. Even if the BCA deadline comes and nothing is done, Congress can still act to change laws retroactively if it chooses.http://www.cnbc.com/id/49464221/What_Is_the_Fiscal_Cliff
Black Friday's 'the Super Bowl of retail,' and it's game on for employees
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Carlos Portillo (center) leads Best Buy workers in a cheer at a Burbank, Calif., store in preparation for Black Friday.
By MARIA HALKIAS
Staff Writer
mhalkias@dallasnews.com
Published: 21 November 2012 06:57 PM
Be nice to those store employees during the frantic holiday shopping season.
Hundreds of thousands of retail workers — 660,200 by one estimate — were hired maybe as recently as a couple of weeks ago.
Bonus pay for working Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday is standard, but consider the base: The median pay for a full-time retail salesperson is $9.94 an hour, or $20,675 a year. Median pay for full-time cashiers is slightly less at $8.89 an hour, or $18,491 a year.
While most industries view this as a slow time and grant time off, the retail culture considers working long hours during the holiday season the norm.
Heck, it’s even in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook: “Employers may restrict the use of vacation time from Thanksgiving through early January because that is the busiest time of year for most retailers.”
“This is what we’ve worked hard all year for. It’s the Super Bowl of retail,” said Sid Keswani, senior vice president for Target Corp. in the Dallas regional office. He mentioned that this is his 18th Black Friday — retailers remember that, and it’s kind of a badge of honor.
Obviously, store managers are stretching to staff the extended store hours, and they try to show their appreciation, with food flowing in the back room and even corny activities to rally the troops.
Red, Hot & Blue is delivering food for employees to the Best Buy on North Central Expressway in Dallas every two hours on Black Friday. It’s one of the busiest stores in the Minnesota-based chain year-round — and especially this week.
“I purposely request to work on Black Friday,” said Anthony Gautier, who is working his second Black Friday at Best Buy and has worked two others at Abercrombie & Fitch. “It’s such as rush — better than a roller coaster.
“We call it organized chaos. The customers are excited, and we are, too. People come in and haven’t had a new computer or TV in 10 years.”
Gautier, 29, worked in retail during college and then went into public relations.
“I fell back in love with retail last year when I started working as a seasonal employee in October.” He’s now handles both in-store and online sales and runs the store’s consumer credit financing department.
A Target store in Frisco is holding hourly drawings for employee prizes over Thanksgiving. The Target on North Central Expressway and Parker in Plano held a contest this year to guess the weight of a holiday ham.
In Charlotte, N.C., Target managers are making tacos on Black Friday and earlier this week sponsored after-hours games of turkey bowling. Employees roll frozen turkeys down the store aisle, and if it hits the bulls-eye, the employee takes home the turkey. (Check out frozen turkey bowling on Google and YouTube.)
Big discounts
J.C. Penney employees just had a two-day shopping event where they got to purchase merchandise at the lower Black Friday prices, on top of the regular 25 percent employee discount.
Penney also created an online button bingo game for employees to win cash prizes since they aren’t eligible to play the holiday button contest that Penney is launching for customers beginning Black Friday.
Stores have to get their employees “fired up for the Black Friday frenzy,” said Craig Rowley, vice president in the Dallas office of Hay Group’s retail consulting practice.
Employees are happiest when management has made sure there’s enough merchandise on hand and has a plan for crowd control, Rowley said. “Managers need to tell store employees in advance what customers are likely to ask them and give them the answers.”
Many store employees look forward to the season as much as shoppers do. But there’s also been a backlash among employees who prefer to preserve Thanksgiving as a day to be with loved ones.
Thanksgiving backlash
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/20121121-black-friday-s-the-super-bowl-of-retail-and-it-s-game-on-for-employees.ece
In August, Apple won a $1.05 billion patent-infringement verdict in a jury trial against Samsung in San Jose. U.S. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg“HTC is not entitled to special treatment, especially when it has recognized the general sufficiency of the protective order and the integrity of Samsung’s outside counsel,” Grewal wrote.In August, Apple won a $1.05 billion patent-infringement verdict in a jury trial against Samsung in San Jose. U.S. District Judge Lucy H. Koh scheduled a Dec. 6 hearing for Apple’s bid for a permanent U.S. sales ban on eight Samsung smartphone models and the Tab 10.1 tablet computer. She will also consider Samsung’s bid to get the verdict thrown out based on claims of juror misconduct.Samsung had argued the terms of the licensing agreement are “highly relevant” to Apple’s request for an order blocking U.S. sales of Samsung smartphones. Before today, lawyers for Apple said HTC was willing to provide a copy of the accord with the financial terms redacted.
By MARIA HALKIAS
Staff Writer
mhalkias@dallasnews.com
Published: 21 November 2012 06:57 PM
Be nice to those store employees during the frantic holiday shopping season.
Hundreds of thousands of retail workers — 660,200 by one estimate — were hired maybe as recently as a couple of weeks ago.
Bonus pay for working Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday is standard, but consider the base: The median pay for a full-time retail salesperson is $9.94 an hour, or $20,675 a year. Median pay for full-time cashiers is slightly less at $8.89 an hour, or $18,491 a year.
While most industries view this as a slow time and grant time off, the retail culture considers working long hours during the holiday season the norm.
Heck, it’s even in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook: “Employers may restrict the use of vacation time from Thanksgiving through early January because that is the busiest time of year for most retailers.”
“This is what we’ve worked hard all year for. It’s the Super Bowl of retail,” said Sid Keswani, senior vice president for Target Corp. in the Dallas regional office. He mentioned that this is his 18th Black Friday — retailers remember that, and it’s kind of a badge of honor.
Obviously, store managers are stretching to staff the extended store hours, and they try to show their appreciation, with food flowing in the back room and even corny activities to rally the troops.
Red, Hot & Blue is delivering food for employees to the Best Buy on North Central Expressway in Dallas every two hours on Black Friday. It’s one of the busiest stores in the Minnesota-based chain year-round — and especially this week.
“I purposely request to work on Black Friday,” said Anthony Gautier, who is working his second Black Friday at Best Buy and has worked two others at Abercrombie & Fitch. “It’s such as rush — better than a roller coaster.
“We call it organized chaos. The customers are excited, and we are, too. People come in and haven’t had a new computer or TV in 10 years.”
Gautier, 29, worked in retail during college and then went into public relations.
“I fell back in love with retail last year when I started working as a seasonal employee in October.” He’s now handles both in-store and online sales and runs the store’s consumer credit financing department.
A Target store in Frisco is holding hourly drawings for employee prizes over Thanksgiving. The Target on North Central Expressway and Parker in Plano held a contest this year to guess the weight of a holiday ham.
In Charlotte, N.C., Target managers are making tacos on Black Friday and earlier this week sponsored after-hours games of turkey bowling. Employees roll frozen turkeys down the store aisle, and if it hits the bulls-eye, the employee takes home the turkey. (Check out frozen turkey bowling on Google and YouTube.)
Big discounts
J.C. Penney employees just had a two-day shopping event where they got to purchase merchandise at the lower Black Friday prices, on top of the regular 25 percent employee discount.
Penney also created an online button bingo game for employees to win cash prizes since they aren’t eligible to play the holiday button contest that Penney is launching for customers beginning Black Friday.
Stores have to get their employees “fired up for the Black Friday frenzy,” said Craig Rowley, vice president in the Dallas office of Hay Group’s retail consulting practice.
Employees are happiest when management has made sure there’s enough merchandise on hand and has a plan for crowd control, Rowley said. “Managers need to tell store employees in advance what customers are likely to ask them and give them the answers.”
Many store employees look forward to the season as much as shoppers do. But there’s also been a backlash among employees who prefer to preserve Thanksgiving as a day to be with loved ones.
Thanksgiving backlash
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/20121121-black-friday-s-the-super-bowl-of-retail-and-it-s-game-on-for-employees.ece
Apple Ordered to Give Samsung Details of HTC Settlement
Apple Inc. (AAPL) must disclose licensing terms of its settlement with HTC Corp. (2498) toSamsung Electronics Co. (005930), a federal judge in San Jose, California ruled.U.S. Magistrate Judge Paul Grewal said in an order today that financial terms of licensing agreements for other third parties have been disclosed in the patent-infringement case between Apple and Samsung. He ordered Apple to produce a copy of the agreement under an “Attorneys-Eyes-Only” designation, meaning it won’t be publicly available.Enlarge imageSamsung Argument
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-22/apple-must-produce-htc-settlement-for-samsung-judge-says.html
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