7 Temmuz 2012 Cumartesi

Eternal Commodity Bulls Have ‘Thrown in Towel’: Marc Faber

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Commodities bulls may have finally “thrown in the towel,” Marc Faber, the editor and publisher of the 'Gloom, Boom and Doom' report told CNBC, after commodities suffered their biggest one-day fall this year on Thursday.
Bloomberg | Getty ImagesMarc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report
“This weakness is a clear indication of a global economic contraction…fundamentals have been deteriorating for some time but now the eternal bulls have thrown in the towel,” Faber said on Friday. “In other words, the perception has changed.”
Faber expects more weakness in industrial commodities, though he said agricultural commodities "look better".The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index lost more than 2 percent on Thursday, its biggest decline this year, bringing it close to its lowest level since September 2010, after disappointing economic data from the U.S. and manufacturing reports from China and Europe pointed to a persistently weak global economy.West Texas intermediate [CLCV1  80.16    1.96  (+2.51%)   ] plunged 3.5 percent, or $3.05 to close at $78.20 per barrel, the first close below $80 since October. Gold [GCCV1  1572.00    6.50  (+0.42%)   ] was trading at $1,561.25 per ounce in early trading in Asia on Friday, after losing close to 3 percent on Thursday.Andrew Su, CEO of Compass Markets, a Sydney-based commodity broker, said he has been forecasting weakness in commodities since the beginning of the year and does not expect the selling to stop any time soon. “Fundamentals haven’t changed but investor sentiment certainly has,” Su told CNBC. “We certainly do (expect more downside). All our September quarter targets have either been reached or are very close to being achieved. We will be revising our targets lower soon.”

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Analysts are predicting more declines for commodities across the board, including oil and gold.Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at CityIndex, said oil is on a firm downtrend after breaking below $97.51.“Our expectations are if oil fails to hold $80.80 at the close of this week, this could then lead to further prices declines towards $75 by next week,” he said. “In order for oil to reverse current (downtrend), it would need to climb above $89.”Daryl Guppy, a technical analyst and trader, is even more bearish, saying that if oil sank below $78, there is a high chance it could trade around $68.http://www.cnbc.com/id/47914392
Bundesbank Swipes at Draghi as European Fault Lines DeepenThe Bundesbank opposition to the European Central Bank’s plan to help ailing financial institutions is its latest swipe at the crisis-fighting efforts of Mario Draghi’s central bank.As Spanish banks scramble for collateral to use in the refinancing operations that are keeping them afloat, the ECB said today it will cut the rating thresholds and amend eligibility requirements for some asset-backed securities. While the move will give stressed banks greater access to ECB liquidity, it may also increase the amount of risk on the central bank’s balance sheet.“We’re critical of this,” Bundesbank spokesman Michael Best said. In terms of collateral, “we won’t accept what we don’t have to accept,” he said.The criticism highlights one of the fault lines dividing European officials as they struggle to end a crisis threatening to rip the currency union apart. As Draghi’s officials scramble to put together policies that will fight the latest stage of the turmoil, German policy makers are emphasizing the dangers of pursuing unorthodox policies that potentially put taxpayers on the hook for future losses.“It’s almost the usual game: the ECB has to do something to alleviate a liquidity crisis and the Bundesbank isn’t very happy about it,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said in a telephone interview. “The Bundesbank being critical doesn’t fully counteract what the ECB is doing, but possibly makes it a little less effective.”

Fault Lines

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-22/ecb-loosens-collateral-rules-for-banks-to-ease-access-to-funds

Art Cashin in a 2 minute interview head of UBS floor operations
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000097856
Here is the transcript:

thank you, mary. now the little more with art cash with ubs. art, you know, i looked at the bond market. not like there's a flood of cash there. they're just raising cash. the question is why? well, there's a couple of things. there were rumors round about acouple of firms putting out technical notices that the s&p might be vulnerable. that caught some people off guard. you would come in with a growing belief headed possibly toward a global slowdown. you got bad pmi data out of china and germany and there's a growing sense around that the spirit of angela merkle may be like the ghost hung over the meeting of the fmoc yesterday. and that the fed held its powder because it was afraid if it made a big move it would possibly destabilize things in europe so -- bernanke doesn't want to be too aggressive and being differential to the people in europe handling their own issue d having a negative impact here. i mean, you have a dynamic where they want to keep rates low to maybe encourage some risk appetite and obviously in the near term not working at all. that's the problem. the low rates haven't done anything and almost trapped. they're handcuffed. can you imagine if rates started to go up around the world? europe would be in desperate shape. if it went up significantly, we couldn't fund the national debt here at a higher rate. there's a great deal of concern. bernanke's concern is there's plenty of liquidity around and can't get it to the people that need it, the people who areunderwater in houses, bad credit ratings. he's got to find a way to stimulate the money, not get more of it but moving around. in the right place. thank you, art cashin. jackie deangelis, almost 2% to

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