1 Ekim 2012 Pazartesi

Euro-Region Unemployment Rate Rises to Record 11.4%

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The unemployment rate in the euro area reached the highest on record as the festering debt crisis pushed the economy toward a recession, prompting companies to cut jobs.Unemployment in the economy of the 17 nations using the euro was 11.4 percent in August, the same as in June and July after those months’ figures were revised higher, the European Union’sstatistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995 and in line with median of 30 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.Enlarge imageEuro-Region Unemployment Rate Rises to Record 11.4% on Crisis Jobseekers queue at an employment office in Barcelona. Photographer: Stefano Buonamici/BloombergCrisis Spurs Euro Area Record 11.4% Unemployment1:06Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- In "Street News," Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu reports on today's top stories including Euro area unemployment climbed to a record 11.4 percent while manufacturing shrank for a fourteenth straight month, Xstrata's board backs Glencore's takeover bid, South Africa being an investigation into the deaths of striking workers at Lonmin mine and Typhoon Jelawat hits Japan. She speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."Fels: We're In 'Twilight Zone', Europe Worsening5:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about Europe's debt crisis. Fels speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)Europe’s firms are postponing investment decisions and hiring on the back of a looming recession, austerity measures across the region and slowing global growth. The subdued economic outlook has prompted French and German companies including Deutsche Bank AG, PSA Peugeot Citroen and Air France- KLM Group to cut thousands from their payrolls.“There is simply not enough growth in the euro region to create sufficient jobs and the unemployment rate still has not reached its peak,” Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, said before today’s report. “A worrying trend is that the number of unemployed is now also expanding in core countries like Germany, which had been rather sheltered up to now.”

ECB Bond-Purchase Plan

Germany’s unemployment rate remained at 5.5 percent in August, according to today’s report. Germany’s Federal Labor Agency said on Sept. 27 that the number of people without a job rose for a sixth straight month in September. In France, the August jobless rate held at 10.6 percent, while in Spain the rate increased to 25.1 percent, the highest in the euro area, Eurostat said today.While European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has calmed markets with his government bond-purchase plan, executives and consumers are becoming more pessimistic about the economic slowdown and may keep spending plans on hold.Economic confidence in the euro area unexpectedly fell in September as governments may find it more difficult to plug their budget gaps after the euro-area economy contracted 0.2 percent in the second quarter and indicators have since shown signs of a deepening slump. Factory output contracted for a 14th straight month in September, Markit Economics said today.The ECB said last month it expects the euro-area economy to shrink 0.4 percent, down from a previous forecast of a 0.1 percent contraction. It also halved its growth forecast for 2013, to 0.5 percent.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/euro-region-unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-11-4-on-crisis.html

Analysts Cut Profit 52% as Europe Valuations Hit 2-Year High

Analysts are lowering estimates for European earnings growth by 52 percent, clashing with investors whose confidence in the European Central Bank helped send equity valuations to a 2 1/2-year high.While the Euro Stoxx 50 Index surged 25 percent over the past four months, matching the three biggest rallies in the past decade, more than 12,000 estimates compiled by Bloomberg show net income will grow 13 percent next year, down from the 27 percent forecast in January. The gauge is trading at 9.5 times next year’s projected profit, near the highest since April 2010.Enlarge imageAnalysts Cut Earnings 52% as Europe Valuations Hit Two-Year High Bears say declining estimates for companies from Daimler AG to UniCredit SpA show analysts doubt Europe’s economy will strengthen and that stocks have risen too far, too fast. Photographer: Akos Stiller/BloombergFels: We're In 'Twilight Zone', Europe Worsening5:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about Europe's debt crisis. Fels speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)BlackRock Favors Europe Stocks With Overseas Reach6:38Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stuart Reeve, managing director and portfolio manager for BlackRock Inc.'s Global Equity team, talks about the outlook for European stocks and the U.S. economy. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)McKee: You're Going to Remember the Fourth Quarter3:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Mike McKee discusses economic expectations entering the fourth quarter with manufacturing and monthly jobs reports coming this week. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance"Bears say declining estimates for companies from Daimler AG (DAI) to UniCredit SpA show analysts doubt Europe’s economy will strengthen and that stocks have risen too far, too fast. Bulls say valuations can climb more as the program of unlimited bond purchases unveiled last month by ECB President Mario Draghi will limit government borrowing costs and give debt-laden nations the chance to fix their economies and preserve the euro.“My central case would be we are at the top of a range now and now is a time to own less rather than more,” Luke Ellis, chief executive officer of Man Group Plc’s $19.5 billion fund- of-hedge-fund business, said at a presentation in London on Sept. 25. “The chances are we go back down from here.”

Debt Crisis

Concern the debt crisis, now in its third year, is not yet solved helped send the Euro Stoxx 50 down 4.8 percent last week, paring its 2012 gain to 5.9 percent. The gauge rose 0.8 percent to 2,472,98 at 8:28 a.m. in London today. At the start of this year, analysts projected companies in the index would earn 293 euros a share in 2013, compared with 231 euros in 2011, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The forecast growth over the two years had fallen by 52 percent to 261 euros by Sept. 26, the data show.The decline in equities last week trimmed the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E)’s price to 9.5 times estimated 2013 earnings, from a 2 1/2-year high of 10 times on Sept. 14. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) is trading at 12.5 times 2013 forecasts, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trades at 11.2 times.“We have seen a pretty good run up but it has been based more on quantitative easing and intervention,” Peter Garnry, an equities strategist at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said in a Sept. 25 phone interview. “When you look at the fundamentals, they are not following up. The downside is larger than the upside.”

Business Confidence

Euro-area services and manufacturing output as well as German business confidence unexpectedly dropped to the lowest levels in more than 2 1/2 years in September. The median prediction for 2013 gross domestic product growth in the 17- nation euro area has slipped to 0.4 percent from 1.1 percent in January and 2.1 percent in March 2011, according to forecasts from 46 economists compiled by Bloomberg.While government debt in the region has risen to 88 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year from 70 percent in 2004, the ECB’s rescue efforts are convincing investors to add to euro-area stocks.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/analysts-cut-earnings-52-as-europe-valuations-hit-two-year-high.html

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