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I don't agree with Marc on this. He is starting to sound like a gloom and doom with nothing to back up his reasoning. QB
Japan Machinery Orders Fall More Than Forecast on Exports
Japan’s machinery orders fell more than expected in September as slowing global demand hurts exports, while the nation’s current account surplus narrowed to its lowest level for the month since at least 1985.Orders, an indicator of capital spending in three to six months, declined 4.3 percent from the previous month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.1 percent drop. The excess in the broadest measure of Japan’s trade was 503.6 billion yen ($6.3 billion), compared with a median estimate of 761.8 billion yen, a Finance Ministry report showed.Data due next week will probably show the world’s third- largest economy shrank the most since last year’s earthquake. A political impasse over deficit enabling legislation is impeding the government’s scope to aid growth, placing the onus on the central bank to add stimulus.“We are in the middle of a technical recession” of two consecutive quarters of contraction,Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan official, said before the report. “It’s hard for the government to do anything to get us out of recession, so the BOJ may need to do more.”Gross domestic product probably shrank an annualized 3.4 percent in the three months through September, the first decline in five quarters, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Cabinet Office will release the report Nov. 12.
Falling Output
Industrial production in September fell the most since the March 2011 earthquake and exports dropped more than expected. Retail sales the same month rose less than forecast as the expiry of government subsidies for purchases of fuel-efficient cars sapped consumer demand.“The weak global economy is curbing orders from overseas firms,” Matthew Circosta, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, wrote in an e-mailed note before the report. A broader investment slowdown has also dragged on machinery orders, he said.Fanuc Corp. (6954), the world’s largest maker of controls that run machine tools, reported last month its first-half profit missed its forecast as slower demand for goods in Europe dented production and deterred manufacturers from investing in new equipment.The current account surplus has fallen from a peak of 3.3 trillion yen in March 2007, with the nation posting trade deficits in 10 of the last 12 months. Only the income surplus, the current account portion that includes earnings from overseas investment, is preventing Japan from falling into deficit, which would require overseas funding to service the world’s largest public debt.
Exports Deteriorating
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-08/japan-machinery-orders-fall-more-than-forecast-on-exports.html
Stocks fall on post-election worries about fiscal cliff
Investors worried that another recession looms after the U.S. elections left the same gridlocked politicians to deal with the fiscal cliff. The Dow and S&P 500 lose 2.4%; the Nasdaq drops 2.5%.
 Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange the day after election day. U.S. stocks slid as investor focus returned to the budget debate and Europe’s debt crisis after Obama’s reelection. (Peter Foley, Bloomberg / November 8, 2012) |
New faces likely for key U.S. economic posts, starting at Treasury
Maybe stalemate's latest victory means voters will finally win
Obama wins a second term
By Jim Puzzanghera, Andrew Tangel and Don Lee, Los Angeles TimesNovember 7, 2012, 5:04 p.m.WASHINGTON — Financial markets plunged as concerns about Europe's economy combined with the morning-after reality that the U.S. elections left the same gridlocked politicians to deal with the fast-approaching fiscal cliff.The Dow Jones industrial average fell 313 points, or 2.4%, on Wednesday to its lowest level in three months. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index also ended the day down 2.4%, and the Nasdaq was off 2.5%.Investors worried that another recession loomed next year unless newly reelected President Obama and still-strong congressional Republicans could stop the large tax hikes and government spending cuts that kick in Jan. 1."We've gotten certainty on the presidency and now we move into the uncertainty of where we were before — the fiscal cliff," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. "The market's not going to have much patience to wait to see when the negotiations begin in earnest and how they evolve."Sectors in Washington's fiscal or regulatory cross-hairs — defense, healthcare, energy and financial — took drubbings. Big banks, which are subject to many new financial rules championed by Obama, got hammered.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lost $8.27, or 6.6%, to $117.98. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lost $2.40, or 5.6%, to $40.48. Morgan Stanley plunged $1.56, or 8.6%, to $16.63. And UnitedHealth Group Inc., the health insurance giant, lost $2.13, or 3.8%, to $54.26, as hopes for a repeal of Obama'shealthcare reform law faded with his reelection.More signs of trouble regarding the European debt crisis also pushed markets lower. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said new data indicated that the fiscal problems were starting to affect Germany, the Eurozone's strongest economy. Growth forecasts for the region were downgraded.And riots broke out in Greece ahead of the Greek parliament's narrow approval of a tough new round of spending cuts.But most of the attention was on Washington. Fitch Ratings, one of the three leading credit rating companies, highlighted the stakes facing politicians in the coming weeks.The firm declared there would be "no fiscal honeymoon" for Obama, warning that the U.S. probably would face a ratings downgrade if a deal could not be brokered to stave off the fiscal cliff and to increase the nation's debt ceiling again.Business leaders said that with the bitter presidential and congressional elections over, it was time for Democrats and Republicans to join together and prevent another fiscal crisis."The most important mandate coming out of this election is fixing the problems we knew we had to fix," said Jay Timmons, president of the National Assn. of Manufacturers.The challenge is huge.http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-us-markets-20121108,0,5852129.story
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