4 Kasım 2012 Pazar

Gold Set to Extend Weekly Advance as U.S. Unemployment May Rise

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Gold is poised to gain before a report that may show U.S. unemployment increased last month, indicating that the world’s largest economy is struggling to pick up. Silver is set for the best week since September.Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,716.35 an ounce at 8:39 a.m. in Singapore. It’s set to advance 0.3 percent this week in the first climb since Oct. 5. Bullion for December delivery was little changed at $1,716.60 an ounce on the Comex, also up 0.3 percent this week.Data today may show while U.S. employers took on 125,000 workers in October, that wasn’t enough to keep the jobless rate from rising to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015 to spur economic growth and cut unemployment.A higher jobless rate “would suggest the U.S. is a little weaker than anticipated and that could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. The metal usually trades counter to the U.S. currency, which traded little changed against a basket of six counterparts.Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion expanded to a record 2,588.44 metric tons yesterday, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.Applications for jobless benefits fell 9,000 to 363,000 in the week ended Oct. 27, the fewest in three weeks, the U.S. Labor Department said yesterday. Economists forecast 370,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Rosengren’s View

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/gold-set-to-extend-weekly-advance-as-u-s-unemployment-may-rise.html

Gold Traders Most Bullish in 10 Weeks on Stimulus: Commodities

Gold traders are the most bullish in 10 weeks and investors are hoarding a record amount of bullion as central banks pledge to do more to spur economic growth.Eighteen of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and five were bearish. A further four were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Aug. 24. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products gained the past three months, the best run since August 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They reached a record 2,588.2 metric tons on Oct. 31, valued at $143 billion, the data show.Enlarge imageGold Traders Most Bullish in 10 Weeks on Stimulus Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/BloombergPolymetal Sees Gold at $2000 Over Next 6 Months4:02Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Polymetal International Plc Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Nesis talks about the outlook for gold prices and the company's dividend policy. He speaks from London with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)Gold to Reach $2000 in 6-12 Months, Pimco Says6:41Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Greg Sharenow, portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about Iran's offer to suspend domestic production of medium-enriched uranium and the outlook for gold prices. He speaks from London with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)The Bank of Japan (8301) expanded its asset-purchase program on Oct. 30 for the second time in two months, increasing it by 11 trillion yen ($137 billion). The Federal Reserve said last week it plans to continue buying bonds and central banks from Europe to China have pledged more action to boost economies. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.“Central banks are all very concerned about a depression, so they’re keeping monetary policies as loose as possible,” said Mark O’Byrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. “People are buying gold as a store of value to protect against currency depreciation.”

Gold Prices

Gold rose 9.9 percent to $1,718 an ounce in London this year, heading for a 12th straight annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities lost 0.9 percent since the end of December, and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 11 percent. Treasuries returned 2.1 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.The BOJ said its fund will increase to 66 trillion yen, a separate credit loan program will stay at 25 trillion yen and it will also offer unlimited loans to banks to boost credit demand. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 36 percent this year and reached a 16-month high in September.

ETP Holdings

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/gold-traders-most-bullish-in-10-weeks-on-stimulus-commodities.html

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