AIG Offers to Sell as Much as $6.5 Billion of AIA Shares

To contact us Click HERE

American International Group Inc. (AIG), the insurer that repaid a U.S. bailout, plans to sell all of its shares in AIA Group Ltd. (1299) for as much as HK$50.6 billion ($6.5 billion) in the third offering this year.AIG, based in New York, is selling about 1.65 billion shares in Hong Kong-headquartered AIA at HK$29.65 to HK$30.65 each, according to a term sheet obtained by Bloomberg News. AIG holds a remaining 13.7 percent stake in AIA, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche is focusing on U.S. life insurance and global property-casualty coverage after divesting units to help repay a government bailout that swelled to $182.3 billion. The New York-based insurer sold about $8 billion of AIA shares in March and September, following a 2010 initial offering that reduced AIG’s stake to 33 percent.“We’re looking for the right time and the right price to monetize our ownership of AIA,” Benmosche said on an Aug. 3 conference call with analysts. “We have a very good performing company out there.”AIA, which announced that AIG has started to sell “a significant proportion” of the remaining 13.7 percent stake in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange today, didn’t reveal the exact number of shares on sale. Trading of Hong Kong-based AIA is suspended from 9 a.m. local time today.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-17/aig-offers-to-sell-as-much-as-6-5-billion-of-aia-shares.html

Apple’s Problem? The Law of Large Numbers

From The Big PictureApple’s brutal downdraft continues, down over $20 on the day as I write this (BR: closed 509.79 off -19.90‎. or -3.76%‎).What’s the problem? Lack of lines for the iPhone5 in China? Maybe today’s catalyst.We think, however, the market is coming to the conclusion the company has a scale problem. That is, it is just too darn large.We posted earlier in the week about the relative size of Apple’s earnings. In the last four quarters, for example, Apple’s earnings totaled $41.7 billion, which was 21 percent more than the combined earnings of Microsoft, eBay, Google, Yahoo, Facebook, and Amazon!For even more perspective take a look at the chart below. Apple’s average revenue estimate for next fiscal year is $222 billion, which, would rank as the 47th largest GDP out of the 186 countries monitored by the IMF.Thus, with relatively little reoccurring revenue, Apple has to wake up on the first day of every fiscal year and generate annual sales of iPhones, iPads, and iMacs equivalent to Ireland’s GDP or a combined Hungary and Morocco. That’s a big nut.This is a problem probably very few companies experience.Is growth still possible? No doubt. And if any company can do it, it’s Apple. But the growth rate is starting to run up against a hard wall of the law of large numbers, or, at least, the perception that it is. Maybe this why the stock looked so cheap in terms of its PE during the last few years of extraordinary growthhttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Chance Of Going Over The Cliff Now At Least 75%

14 dec 2012posted by stan collenderWith 17 days as the crow flies before it happens, it's time for me to do something I've been resisting for a week or so: formally increase my odds that we'll go over rather than avoid the fiscal cliff.Back in September I said it was better than 50-50 that no deal would be in place by January 1. I raised that to 60 percent immediately after the election. Today, I'm raising my predicted likelihood of no deal before January 1 to 75 percent, and I may still be overstating the possibility that an agreement will be reached and put in place before the tax cuts and spending increases go into effect.I really hope I'm wrong, and will gladly and publicly say that if a last-minute deal materializes. But here's why I don't think I am:1. The Politics Have Become Worse, Not Better. The House GOP is digging in its heals even further in spite of the fact that the polls all show public opinion -- including among Republicans -- being firmly against it. Meanwhile, the White House, no doubt strongly encouraged by the president's high job approval rating and the polls showing that it's position on taxes is very popular, apparently -- and understandably -- sees no reason to compromise.2. The GOP Has Little To Lose At This Point By Letting The Cliff Happen. With their polling numbers already in the tank, it's hard to see what Republicans will gain politically by voting to increase taxes in incomes above $250,000 a year other than the lasting enmity of the most anti-tax members of their base and Grover Norquist.3. Boehner Really Can't Cut A Deal With The White House Before January 3. My  prediction that this would happen was scoffed at by some when I made it months ago, but it's now become a mainstream story. The fiscal cliff hits January 1 and  Boehner's formal election as speaker is January 3. Any deal with the White House and especially a deal that includes the tax increases the White House wants, could cause Boehner to lose enough votes at least on the first ballot on January 3 to prevent him from being speaker. Even if he subsequently wins on a later ballot, he will be seriously weakened. Note: The fact that Boehner has been openly asked this week if he's concerned about being reelected is a sign that the possibility has become more real than anyone but me previously was willing to consider.http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/2684/chance-going-over-cliff-now-least-75