1 Ekim 2012 Pazartesi

Manufacturing In U.S. Shrank In August For Third Month

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U.S. manufacturing shrank for a third month in August in the longest decline since the recession ended in 2009, threatening to deprive the world’s largest economy of a driver of growth.The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 49.6 last month, the lowest since July 2009, from 49.8 in July, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Economists in the Bloomberg survey projected an August reading of 50, which is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Measures of orders and production dropped to three-year lows.Enlarge imageISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Decreased to 49.6 in August A worker reaches for glass to assemble a double-pane window frame at Crystal Windows & Doors IL Manufacturer in Chicago. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.6 in August from 49.8 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Photographer: Tim Boyle/BloombergChris Rupkey on ISM Factory Index, Auto Sales2:57Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, talks about the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index and U.S. vehicle sales for August. The ISM's factory index fell to 49.6 last month, the lowest since July 2009, from 49.8 in July. (Source: Bloomberg)Stocks fell early on concern American factories, which sparked the U.S. expansion three years ago, are succumbing to a manufacturing slowdown that stretches from Asia to Europe. The data underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s view that the economy is too weak to spur hiring and may require additional monetary stimulus.“Manufacturing has been one of the stalwarts of an otherwise lackluster recovery but it’s starting to show some cracks,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. in Birmingham, Alabama, who correctly forecast the index. “Until we get more clarity on the fiscal policy outlook here, more clarity on Europe and some signs on the course of China’s economy, manufacturing is just going to languish.”The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which had fallen as much as 0.7 percent, dropped 0.1 percent to 1,404.94 at the close inNew York as shares of Apple Inc. rallied. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.57 percent from 1.55 percent on Aug. 31.

Automobile Sales

Demand for autos may prevent bigger declines in manufacturing. U.S. sales at Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. rose more than analysts’ estimates last month, industry figures showed today. Chrysler deliveries increased 14 percent, while Ford’s rose 13 percent and GM’s climbed 10 percent.Estimates for the supply managers’ index from the 81 economists surveyed ranged from 48.7 to 51.5. A reading above 42.5 generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy, the ISM has said. The gauge averaged 55.2 in 2011 and 57.3 a year earlier.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/ism-index-of-u-s-manufacturing-decreased-to-49-6-in-august.html

Mired Shares Await Word on Europe

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The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed slightly lower on Tuesday as investors continued to await clarity on the European Central Bank’s plans to shore up heavily indebted countries, but the market ended off its lows on a rally in Apple shares.Equities were lower for much of the session, with industrial and material companies weak after a report showing that manufacturing contracted by its fastest pace in more than three years. Telecommunications and consumer staples, two groups that tend to outperform during periods of uncertainty, led on the day.Markets remain skittish ahead of the European bank’s meeting on Thursday, when the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, is expected to introduce plans to lower borrowing costs for countries like Spain and Italy, whose bond market troubles are the latest front in the region’s debt crisis.“We’re not going to get any definitive direction so long as everyone is waiting around on the Fed and E.C.B.,” Michael Vogelzang, president of Boston Advisors, said. “Things seem very soft right now, and until that changes, the market may have a hard time getting out of the range we’ve been in.”On Friday, the Federal Reserve Board chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, disappointed investors by declining to signal any imminent stimulative action to bolster sluggish growth, though he kept the door open for further easing down the line.Apple rose 1.5 percent to $674.97 and helped erode broader losses. Earlier, the tech giant distributed invitations to an event in San Francisco on Sept. 12, setting the stage for what is widely expected to be the release of the iPhone 5.The Dow Jones industrial average was down 54.90 points, or 0.42 percent, at 13,035.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 1.64 points, or 0.12 percent, at 1,404.94. The Nasdaq composite index was up 8.09 points, or 0.26 percent, at 3,075.06.In company news, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International agreed to buy Medicis Pharmaceutical for $2.6 billion in cash. Valeant shares climbed 14 percent to $57.58 on the New York Stock Exchange while Medicis surged 38 percent to $43.65.About 57 percent of companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed up; almost three-fifths of Nasdaq-listed shares ended higher.Interest rates were slightly higher. The Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note fell 8/32, to 100 15/32, and the yield rose to 1.57 percent from 1.55 percent late Friday. The bond market was closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.

McDonald’s plans to open vegetarian-only restaurants in India

(McDonald’s Corp./ Associated Press ) - This undated image provided by McDonald’s Corp. shows an item available in it’s soon to open vegetarian-only restaurants in India. The company already offers menu items that cater to local tastes, such as the Maharaja Mac, which is a Big Mac except with chicken patties instead of beef.
  • (McDonald’s Corp./ Associated Press ) - This undated image provided by McDonald’s Corp. shows an item available in it’s soon to open vegetarian-only restaurants in India. The company already offers menu items that cater to local tastes, such as the Maharaja Mac, which is a Big Mac except with chicken patties instead of beef.
  • (McDonald’s Corp./ Associated Press ) - This undated image provided by McDonald’s Corp. shows an item available in it’s soon to open vegetarian-only restaurants in India. The company already offers menu items that cater to local tastes, such as the Maharaja Mac, which is a Big Mac except with chicken patties instead of beef.
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By Associated PressUpdated: Tuesday, September 4, 8:54 PM

NEW YORK — McDonald’s Corp., the fast food chain that brought the hamburger to the world, is opening what may be its first vegetarian-only restaurants.The world’s biggest hamburger chain said Tuesday that the locations in India will serve only vegetarian food because of customer preferences in the region. The company could not immediately say when the restaurants would open or how many there would be.http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/mcdonalds-plans-to-open-vegetarian-only-restaurants-in-india/2012/09/04/3b5274f2-f6f4-11e1-a93b-7185e3f88849_story.html

August jobs report to get sharp focus Friday as election nears

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By Michael A. Fletcher, Updated: Thursday, September 6, 5:29 PM


The number of people applying for jobless benefits fell last week, and an independent firm estimated that private employers added 201,000 jobs in August, raising hopes that the rocky job market is improving ahead of the government’s monthly unemployment report on Friday.

Economists polled by Bloomberg estimate that employers added 125,000 jobs in August and that the nation’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.3 percent.


Friday’s Labor Department report is more eagerly anticipated than most. It is one of only three jobs reports remaining before the Nov. 6 presidential election. And it will come just hours after President Obama claims his party’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention, capping a meeting where Democrats have argued before the nation that the economy , while struggling, is on the right track.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has accused Obama of mishandling the economy, and the report’s headline numbers may go a long way toward shaping voters’ views about who is right.

The report also comes just days before next week’s meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that economic growth is far from satisfactory and vowed that unless things improve, the Fed would be “forceful” in taking action to stimulate more robust growth. A weak jobs number could provoke the Fed to further push down already low interest rates to pump up the economy.

In July, employers added 163,000 jobs, a welcome change from three consecutive months in which the nation added an average of just 73,000 jobs. That figure is far lower than what is needed to keep up with normal workforce growth and to lower the nation’s unemployment rate. Overall this year, the economy has added an average of 151,000 jobs a month.

A recent flurry of economic indicators point to a gradual improvement in the job market, many economists say.

An employment report from payroll services firm ADP showed an increase of 201,000 private-sector payroll jobs in August. Thursday’s report from ADP was the strongest in five months.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing employment index increased in August, even though the group’s manufacturing index declined for the third consecutive month.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/august-jobs-report-to-get-sharp-focus-friday-as-election-nears/2012/09/06/a80f3458-f7a9-11e1-8398-0327ab83ab91_story.html

163k new jobs last month for low wages and no benefits. I got an offer to sell cutlery and another for multilevel marketing. Neither of which I would consider in this lifetime. A pyramid scheme and cold selling knives made in China no doubt. Hell you could hear in the background that it was a loud call center trying to recruit rubes to sell knives for them and working on commission. No benefits at all. QB


JPMorgan Said to Face Escalating Senate Probe of CIO Loss

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (JPM) wrong-way bets on derivatives are the focus of an escalating investigation by a U.S. Senate panel led by Carl Levin that has grilled executives from banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc, three people briefed on the inquiry said.Dick Bove on Libor Manipulation Investigation
7:41Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities, talks about the London interbank offered rate, Libor, scandal. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are among seven banks subpoenaed in New York and Connecticut's investigation into alleged manipulation of Libor, according to a person familiar with the matter and company filings. Bove speaks with Stephanie Ruhle and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers. (Source: Bloomberg)Enlarge imageJPMorgan Said to Face Escalating Senate Probe Into CIO’s Losses Senator Carl Levin’s panel probed Wall Street for two years following the 2008 financial crisis. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergLevin’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations is seeking testimony from those who worked in or helped lead JPMorgan’s chief investment office, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the inquiry isn’t public. The unit’s London staff lost at least $5.8 billion this year on the botched wagers, which were large enough to shift markets.Tara Andringa, a spokeswoman for Levin, didn’t respond to a message seeking comment, and Joe Evangelisti at JPMorgan declined to discuss the panel’s inquiry. “As always, the company has fully cooperated with all regulatory and governmental requests around this matter,” Evangelisti said.The bank, led by Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, 56, faces a panel of lawmakers that in recent years brought executives from Goldman Sachs and London-based HSBC toCapitol Hill, barraging them with questions that challenged their version of events. JPMorgan said in July that its internal review found traders may have tried to obscure the full amount of losses they faced on their transactions.The market value of JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank by assets, has dropped more than $22 billion since Bloomberg News first reported on April 5 that the firm amassed a large and illiquid position in credit derivatives in the London office. The bank lost $5.8 billion on the trades during the first six months of this year and has said it could lose as much as $7.5 billion total while closing out the position.

Delany Appointed

Dimon, who dismissed initial press reports as a “tempest in a teapot,” retracted those words less than a month later when the firm reported a $2 billion loss on the position on May 10. Chief Investment Officer Ina Drew, 56, who ran the unit, resigned on May 14 and later offered to return a portion of her past compensation to the company.Dimon has since overhauled the division, initially replacing Drew with his former co-head of fixed-income trading, Matthew Zames, along with several other executives. Yesterday, the bank said it appointed Craig Delany as the new chief investment officer reporting to Zames, who is now co-chief operating officer, according to an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg News. Delany will manage the firm’s mortgage-servicing rights as part of his “broad role,” according to the memo.The three London traders and managers whom the bank deemed directly responsible for the trades are no longer with the firm, which has said it will seek to claw back their pay.

Political Restraints

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-06/jpmorgan-said-to-face-escalating-senate-probe-into-cio-s-losses.html

Where is the RICO act when you need one? It appears evident that these people are above the law or the law has no balls to go after them. The whole damn bankster group of GS, JPM, Morgan Stanley and the rest should be in JAIL. Do not pass go do not collect 200 billion dollars. QB

American's at their best

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We don't need jobs. We just need an iPhone

Apple Reaches $700 as IPhone 5 Shatters Sales Record


Peter Foley/BloombergPeople in line at the Apple Inc. store on Fifth Avenue in advance of the sale of the iPhone 5 in New York, on Sept. 17, 2012. The iPhone 5 is expected to go on sale at stores on Sept. 21.Apple Inc. (AAPL) surpassed $700 in late trading after announcing record first-day orders for the latest iPhone, fueling optimism that the company will keep generating the revenue growth that transformed it from a niche computer manufacturer into the world’s most valuable business.Enlarge imageApple Shares Reach $700 Apple Inc. shares surpassed $700 in late trading after announcing record first-day orders for the latest iPhone. Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergShares climbed as high as $700.44 after reaching a record $699.78 at the close in New York. The stock has advanced 73 percent this year.The iPhone 5, which features a bigger screen, faster chip and a lighter body, sold 2 million units in first-day orders, more than double a record set by the previous model, Apple said. Since its 2007 debut, the device has become Apple’s top-selling product, accounting for about two-thirds of profit. Signs of robust demand reinforced expectations that Apple will withstand accelerating competition from Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) and Google Inc. (GOOG) in the $219.1 billion smartphone market.“It leaves me in awe,” said Rex Ishibashi, chief executive officer of Callaway Digital Arts Inc. (2326), which develops games for the iPhone. “It’s reflective of how important these devices and these digital technologies have become in our lives.”Apple’s surge gathered steam Sept. 14, after it began taking orders for iPhone 5. Apple’s website said new orders wouldn’t ship until Sept. 28, a week after the handset is due in stores, an indication that supply may be running thin.“The initial batch is sold out,” Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., said in an interview. He raised his sales estimate for the quarter ending in September to 26 million units, from 23 million. “We think that could turn out to be conservative.”

Exxon, Microsoft

Apple surpassed Exxon Mobil Corp. to become the biggest company in the world by market capitalization last year after overtaking Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) as the most valuable technology company in 2010. Before his death in October, co-founder Steve Jobs mastered a strategy of pushing Apple beyond its core business of selling computers into new markets, including digital music and mobile phones. Each new family of products helped the company boost revenue while inducing investors to snap up more shares.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-17/apple-reaches-700-as-iphone-5-shatters-sales-record.htmlAnd what are the really rich buying?

Diamond sells for $9.7 million at Swiss auction

Diamond sells for $9.7 million in an auction in Geneva. Marie de Medici wore the 34.98 carat Beau Sancy diamond at her coronation as Queen Consort of Henry IV in France in 1610.

By John Heilprin, The Associated Press / May 16, 2012
An employee shows the Beau Sancy diamond, 34.98 carat, at Sotheby's auction house in Zurich, Switzerland. Marie de Medici wore it at her coronation as Queen Consort of Henry IV in 1610, and now the Beau Sancy diamond is a lavish accessory owned by an anonymous bidder who paid US $9.7 million (7.6 million euro) for it at Sotheby’s auction in Geneva Tuesday May 15, 2012.Alessandro Della Bella/Keystone/AP/FileEnlarge
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GENEVAMarie de Medici wore it at her coronation as Queen Consort of Henry IV in France in 1610, and now the Beau Sancy diamond is a lavish accessory owned by an anonymous bidder who paid $9.7 million for it at Sotheby's auction.The spring auction season for jewelry and watches is upon Geneva, where elegant lakefront hotels fill with well-heeled buyers and bidders in a scene far removed from the debate over European austerity.Five bidders fueled the price on Tuesday at the Sotheby's sale for the Beau Sancy, a 34.98 carat diamond that had passed among the royal families in France, England, Prussia and the Netherlands. It was sold by the Royal House of Prussia, the line of descendants that once ruled Prussia.Another historical item, the Murat Tiara, sold for $3.87 million. The pearl-and-diamond tiara was created for the marriage of a prince whose ancestors included the husband of Caroline Bonaparte, Napoleon's sister. A diamond brooch known as the "Bonnie Prince Charlie" sold for $968,085. The brooch features a yellow diamond once owned by Charles Edward Stuart, whose attempt to regain the British crown led to the Battle of Culloden in 1745. At a Christie's auction Monday to benefit 32 charities favored by the Lily Safra Foundation, Safra's donated jewelry fetched nearly $38 million in sales — almost double what was expected.http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0516/Diamond-sells-for-9.7-million-at-Swiss-auctionAnd did you happen to know this?

Russia reveals shiny state secret: It's awash in diamonds

'Trillions of carats' lie below a 35-million-year-old, 62-mile-diameter asteroid crater in eastern Siberia known as Popigai Astroblem. The Russians have known about the site since the 1970s.

By Fred Weir, Correspondent / September 17, 2012
A giant Russian national flag is on display near the Kremlin in central Moscow March 6.Thomas Peter/REUTERSEnlarge
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MOSCOWRussia has just declassified news that will shake world gem markets to their core: the discovery of a vast new diamond field containing "trillions of carats," enough to supply global markets for another 3,000 years.http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2012/0917/Russia-reveals-shiny-state-secret-It-s-awash-in-diamonds

Romney is so out of touch with reality that it makes me wonder why anyone would vote for this clown. QB

Romney Government-Dependent ‘Victims’ Remark Roils Message

The U.S. economy returned to the forefront of the presidential campaign today even as Mitt Romney’s message against President Barack Obama was again distracted, this time by the release of a video where he calls many Americans “victims” dependent on government.“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what,” the Republican presidential nominee says in a secretly recorded video from a fundraiser that was obtained by Mother Jones magazine from an unidentified person. It also was posted online by the Huffington Post.“All right -- there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent on government, who believe that, that they are victims, who believe that government has the responsibility to care for them,” Romney says on the video, adding that they “believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-17/romney-distracted-by-comments-on-government-dependent-victims-.html

Welcome to the Era of 'Ugly' Inflation

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Where everybody losesby Charles Hugh SmithThursday, September 27, 2012, 8:33 PM
A year ago, in the wake of the then-announced additional monetary easing measures by the Federal Reserve (which since sent stock prices on a rocket ride for the next nine months), many of our readers feared a major decline in the dollar was imminent. To add some balance to our site content, we asked Peak Prosperity contributing editor Charles Hugh Smith to argue the case for a strengthening dollar. He graciously accepted, and in the year since writing Heresy and the US Dollar, America's currency did indeed strengthen notably vs. its fiat counterparts. Now, after the Fed's announcement of QE3 (plus), many of us are girding once again for dollar weakness. So we've invited Charles to once again play devil's advocate.

The Siren Song of 'Beautiful Deleveraging'

In a world of rising sovereign debts and an overleveraged, over-indebted private sector, history suggests there are only three possible ways out: gradual deleveraging, defaulting on the debt, or printing enough money to inflate away the debt.Ray Dalio recently described the characteristics of a “beautiful deleveraging” in which equal doses of austerity, write-downs, and inflation gradually lighten the load of impaired debt.  This might be called the Goldilocks Deleveraging, as the key feature of this “beautiful” solution is that each component is “not too hot, not too cold” – inflation is modest, write-downs of bad debt are gradual, and austerity is not too severe.  Given enough time, the leverage and debt are worked off without requiring any structural change to the Status Quo.Understandably, the Status Quo has embraced this solution for the appealing reason it doesn’t change the power structure at all.  Everyone currently in charge remains in charge, and everyone who owns outsized wealth continues owning outsized wealth. Rather than falling onto the politically powerful “too big to fail” banking sector, the pain of deleveraging is spread over the entire economy.  There is no such thing as painless deleveraging, so the “solution” is to distribute the pain over hundreds of millions of people. That’s what makes it “beautiful” to the Status Quo: It doesn’t cost them either their power or their wealth.http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/79761/welcome-era-ugly-inflation?utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_27&utm_source=newsletter_2012-09-28&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_title_79761

Why Germany Is Going to Exit the Eurozone

Simply put, it has no choiceby Alasdair MacleodTuesday, September 25, 2012, 12:24 AMIt's becoming clear that there is only one sensible solution ahead of us as the Eurozone’s problems evolve: Germany and the other countries suited to a strong currency should leave. If they do, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be free to pursue the easy money policies recommended by Keynesians and monetarists alike. It's increasingly clear that Germany has no option but to behave like any creditor seeking to protect its interests – and do its best to defuse the growing resentment against her from the Eurozone’s debtors.However, leaving the Eurozone is a political and legal, even seismic wrench, reversing decades of historical progression towards political and economic union.The saga of the Eurozone reads like an old-fashioned novel – with a beginning, a middle, and presumably an end. In the beginning we are introduced to the characters, the middle is where the action is, and the end is plainly predictable. There are two broad types of story: fairy tale and murder mystery.  A fairy tale starts with a handsome prince, who meets and conquers evil and woos the princess, and at the end they marry and live happily ever after.  A murder mystery starts with a murder, the middle is littered with clues (many of which are designed to put the reader off the scent), and the perpetrator of the crime is revealed at the end. The starry-eyed visionaries behind the Eurozone embarked on a fairy tale and instead have found themselves as characters in a murder plot. The difference is not the outcome, but how many pages we have left to turn to the end of the story.The victim, of course, is the great European ideal, the political project that was meant to unite the European nations. The murderer is sound economic theory, which has been ignored, even trampled underfoot, but has resurfaced in the guise of reality. None of the actors foresaw (let alone can accept) this turn of events, and to get a flavour of the current mood we only have to listen to Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, whose response is to retreat into yet more regulation and statist control in denial of all reality.Germany and France are centre-stage; in the post-war years they were partners in forming an economic and political block on Soviet Russia’s western boundary, containing the spread of communism. And by uniting the nations of Continental Europe, the reasons for war between them would be neutralised. These objectives were achieved, not so much by the formation of the European Union, but because the USSR’s communist model ensured the eventual economic collapse and disintegration of Russia and her satellites. And after the Franco-Prussian War and the First and Second World Wars, Germany lost all appetite for belligerence anyway.France, with a little help from her Anglo-Saxon friends, was cock-of-the-roost after the two world wars, so much so that De Gaulle, France’s post-WW2 leader, was confident enough to refuse to join NATO, building France’s own arms capability instead. This sharply contrasted with Germany, who disavowed any military capability of her own and submitted completely to the military jurisdiction of NATO. This was reflected in post-war politics, with Germany quietly rebuilding her shattered economy, basing it on the preservation of savings, while France sought to build the state. The background to our story is one involving neighbours presenting a common front, but with very different attitudes toward life.http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/79685/why-germany-exit-eurozone?utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_27&utm_source=newsletter_2012-09-28&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_title_79685

Euro-Region Unemployment Rate Rises to Record 11.4%

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The unemployment rate in the euro area reached the highest on record as the festering debt crisis pushed the economy toward a recession, prompting companies to cut jobs.Unemployment in the economy of the 17 nations using the euro was 11.4 percent in August, the same as in June and July after those months’ figures were revised higher, the European Union’sstatistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995 and in line with median of 30 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.Enlarge imageEuro-Region Unemployment Rate Rises to Record 11.4% on Crisis Jobseekers queue at an employment office in Barcelona. Photographer: Stefano Buonamici/BloombergCrisis Spurs Euro Area Record 11.4% Unemployment1:06Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- In "Street News," Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu reports on today's top stories including Euro area unemployment climbed to a record 11.4 percent while manufacturing shrank for a fourteenth straight month, Xstrata's board backs Glencore's takeover bid, South Africa being an investigation into the deaths of striking workers at Lonmin mine and Typhoon Jelawat hits Japan. She speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."Fels: We're In 'Twilight Zone', Europe Worsening5:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about Europe's debt crisis. Fels speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)Europe’s firms are postponing investment decisions and hiring on the back of a looming recession, austerity measures across the region and slowing global growth. The subdued economic outlook has prompted French and German companies including Deutsche Bank AG, PSA Peugeot Citroen and Air France- KLM Group to cut thousands from their payrolls.“There is simply not enough growth in the euro region to create sufficient jobs and the unemployment rate still has not reached its peak,” Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, said before today’s report. “A worrying trend is that the number of unemployed is now also expanding in core countries like Germany, which had been rather sheltered up to now.”

ECB Bond-Purchase Plan

Germany’s unemployment rate remained at 5.5 percent in August, according to today’s report. Germany’s Federal Labor Agency said on Sept. 27 that the number of people without a job rose for a sixth straight month in September. In France, the August jobless rate held at 10.6 percent, while in Spain the rate increased to 25.1 percent, the highest in the euro area, Eurostat said today.While European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has calmed markets with his government bond-purchase plan, executives and consumers are becoming more pessimistic about the economic slowdown and may keep spending plans on hold.Economic confidence in the euro area unexpectedly fell in September as governments may find it more difficult to plug their budget gaps after the euro-area economy contracted 0.2 percent in the second quarter and indicators have since shown signs of a deepening slump. Factory output contracted for a 14th straight month in September, Markit Economics said today.The ECB said last month it expects the euro-area economy to shrink 0.4 percent, down from a previous forecast of a 0.1 percent contraction. It also halved its growth forecast for 2013, to 0.5 percent.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/euro-region-unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-11-4-on-crisis.html

Analysts Cut Profit 52% as Europe Valuations Hit 2-Year High

Analysts are lowering estimates for European earnings growth by 52 percent, clashing with investors whose confidence in the European Central Bank helped send equity valuations to a 2 1/2-year high.While the Euro Stoxx 50 Index surged 25 percent over the past four months, matching the three biggest rallies in the past decade, more than 12,000 estimates compiled by Bloomberg show net income will grow 13 percent next year, down from the 27 percent forecast in January. The gauge is trading at 9.5 times next year’s projected profit, near the highest since April 2010.Enlarge imageAnalysts Cut Earnings 52% as Europe Valuations Hit Two-Year High Bears say declining estimates for companies from Daimler AG to UniCredit SpA show analysts doubt Europe’s economy will strengthen and that stocks have risen too far, too fast. Photographer: Akos Stiller/BloombergFels: We're In 'Twilight Zone', Europe Worsening5:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about Europe's debt crisis. Fels speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)BlackRock Favors Europe Stocks With Overseas Reach6:38Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stuart Reeve, managing director and portfolio manager for BlackRock Inc.'s Global Equity team, talks about the outlook for European stocks and the U.S. economy. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)McKee: You're Going to Remember the Fourth Quarter3:15Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Mike McKee discusses economic expectations entering the fourth quarter with manufacturing and monthly jobs reports coming this week. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance"Bears say declining estimates for companies from Daimler AG (DAI) to UniCredit SpA show analysts doubt Europe’s economy will strengthen and that stocks have risen too far, too fast. Bulls say valuations can climb more as the program of unlimited bond purchases unveiled last month by ECB President Mario Draghi will limit government borrowing costs and give debt-laden nations the chance to fix their economies and preserve the euro.“My central case would be we are at the top of a range now and now is a time to own less rather than more,” Luke Ellis, chief executive officer of Man Group Plc’s $19.5 billion fund- of-hedge-fund business, said at a presentation in London on Sept. 25. “The chances are we go back down from here.”

Debt Crisis

Concern the debt crisis, now in its third year, is not yet solved helped send the Euro Stoxx 50 down 4.8 percent last week, paring its 2012 gain to 5.9 percent. The gauge rose 0.8 percent to 2,472,98 at 8:28 a.m. in London today. At the start of this year, analysts projected companies in the index would earn 293 euros a share in 2013, compared with 231 euros in 2011, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The forecast growth over the two years had fallen by 52 percent to 261 euros by Sept. 26, the data show.The decline in equities last week trimmed the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E)’s price to 9.5 times estimated 2013 earnings, from a 2 1/2-year high of 10 times on Sept. 14. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) is trading at 12.5 times 2013 forecasts, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trades at 11.2 times.“We have seen a pretty good run up but it has been based more on quantitative easing and intervention,” Peter Garnry, an equities strategist at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said in a Sept. 25 phone interview. “When you look at the fundamentals, they are not following up. The downside is larger than the upside.”

Business Confidence

Euro-area services and manufacturing output as well as German business confidence unexpectedly dropped to the lowest levels in more than 2 1/2 years in September. The median prediction for 2013 gross domestic product growth in the 17- nation euro area has slipped to 0.4 percent from 1.1 percent in January and 2.1 percent in March 2011, according to forecasts from 46 economists compiled by Bloomberg.While government debt in the region has risen to 88 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year from 70 percent in 2004, the ECB’s rescue efforts are convincing investors to add to euro-area stocks.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/analysts-cut-earnings-52-as-europe-valuations-hit-two-year-high.html

30 Eylül 2012 Pazar

China Slower Output Gains Complicate Easing Policies

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China’s industrial output grew at the slowest pace in three years and President Hu Jintao said economic expansion faces “notable downward pressure,” signaling that officials may need to add further to stimulus after approving subway and road projects.Production increased 8.9 percent in August from a year earlier and fixed-asset investment growth in the first eight months eased to 20.2 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in Beijing. Inflation accelerated for the first time in five months.Enlarge imageShipping containers are stacked at a port in Shanghai Shipping containers are stacked at the Yangshan deep water port in Shanghai. Photographer: Kevin Lee/BloombergEnlarge imageChina Slower Output Gains to Rising Prices Complicate Policy Food inflation accelerated for the first time in five months, rising 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Consumer prices increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, the biggest rise since January, while food prices increased 1.5 percent from July. Photographer: Nelson Ching/BloombergThe data underscore risks that full-year growth in the world’s second-biggest economy will slide to its lowest in more than two decades and undermine support for the ruling Communist Party during its once-a-decade power transition to a new generation of leaders later this year. The rebound in inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad loan risks from past monetary easing highlight the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.“Politicians want a benign backdrop for their party congress gathering and slumping stock prices and a worsening growth slowdown could spoil the party,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. “Putting together the economic fundamentals and the timing of major political events, there will be a second round of policy easing including cuts to banks’ reserve requirements and some fiscal stimulus.”

Trade Support

Customs bureau data today may show exports rose 2.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, slumping from a 24.5 percent pace in the same month last year. Overseas shipments in July rose 1 percent as sales to European Union countries fell and growth in U.S. exports stalled.China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming said specific measures to support and stabilize foreign trade will be announced soon, according to an interview broadcast yesterday by China Central Television. He also said the nation’s foreign trade situation in the fourth quarter will be better than in the third.UBS AG and ING Groep NV on Sept. 7 cut their forecasts for economic expansion this year to 7.5 percent amid a weakening global outlook and less forceful policy support than they previously expected. That would be the slowest pace since 1990.ING lowered its estimate for China’s third-quarter growth to 7.1 percent while UBS projects a 7.3 percent pace. The economy expanded 7.6 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, the least in three years and the sixth straight slowdown in growth.

‘Arduous Task’

Speaking to business executives at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostok on Sept. 8, President Hu said China’s small and medium-sized enterprises are having a “hard time” and exporters are facing more difficulties. The government has an “arduous task of creating jobs for new entrants to the labor force.”Hu also urged governments in the Asia-Pacific region to speed up infrastructure development, describing it as key to promoting recovery and achieving sustained and stable growth amid increasing downward risks to the global economy.His comments followed a slew of announcements by the Chinese government approving new roads, railways and urban infrastructure that Nomura Holdings Inc. estimates have a combined value of about 1 trillion yuan ($158 billion).The news drove the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), China’s benchmark stock gauge, 3.7 percent higher on Sept. 7, the biggest gain in eight months. The index had previously dropped 17 percent from this year’s March 2 high as cooling economic growth hurt earnings.

Inflation Accelerates

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-09/china-s-inflation-accelerates-in-blow-to-easing-prospects-1-.html


Greek gov't fails to agree on spending cuts



ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- The leaders of the three parties in Greece's coalition government failed to agree Sunday on a package of spending cuts worth â?¬11.5 billion ($14.7 billion), a raft of measures the prime minister had said is crucial to restoring the country's financial credibility and sustaining its bailout funding.

Conservative Premier Antonis Samaras and the other two leaders -- socialist Evangelos Venizelos and Fotis Kouvelis of the Democratic Left -- disagreed on across-the-board cuts in pensions and wages. The latter two insisted that Greece's international creditors give the country more time to implement the spending cuts.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/story/2012/09/9/greek-govt-fails-to-agree-on-spending-cuts/57720448/1


Ship Magnate Uses Gut in $11 Billion Bet Worst Since ’70s Ending

The flow of much of the world’s oil is controlled from a small suite of offices perched over a Tiffany & Co. store in the Chelsea section of London. That’s where John Fredriksen, a Norwegian shipping magnate worth $13.2 billion, manages the world’s largest fleet of supertankers, the most valuable deep-water drilling company and an armada of about 128 other vessels that carry minerals, grains and liquefied gases.Every morning, he plows through a stack of reports on the operations of his maritime empire. Whenever he makes a bet-the- company move, which he does every few years, Fredriksen sets the data aside. “I still work on a gut feeling,” he says in a conference room adorned with a painting of a supertanker named after Kathrine, one of his two daughters.Enlarge imageJohn Fredriksen, founder of Seadrill Ltd. John Fredriksen, the world's biggest tanker owner, is betting $11 billion to extend his dominance over the transportation of energy. Photographer: Henry Bourne/ Bloomberg Markets via BloombergAs he navigates the worst shipping market since the 1970s, Fredriksen’s instincts are telling him to buy, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its October special issue on the 50 Most Influential people in global finance. He’s investing $7 billion in 18 rigs to pump oil from beneath the ocean floor and $4 billion in about four dozen new vessels to transport liquefied natural gas, gasoline, propane and other fuels. While Fredriksen loves tankers -- images of crude carriers are etched on the water glasses in his office -- he’s now trying to increase his dominance over the global circulation of liquid energy in most of its forms.Fredriksen, 68, is making the biggest wager in a swashbuckling career that has brought billions of dollars in windfalls as well as bitter setbacks -- such as the almost four months he spent in a Norwegian jail charged with fraud. A stout man with the weathered face of a mariner, Fredriksen is fond of joking that 42 of the 50 years he has worked in the tanker trade have been awful.

Big Dog

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-09/ship-magnate-uses-gut-in-11-billion-bet-worst-since-70s-ending.html

Asian Shares Fall Before FOMC, German Court Ruling

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Asian markets fell in cautious trading Tuesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting and a critical German Constitutional Court ruling, both due later this week.

"Most investors may prefer to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the German Constitutional Court's decision on the eurozone's bailout fund, the launch of the new iPhone, and the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting later this week," said Benson Huang, analyst at Horizon Securities in Taiwan.

Now that the European Central Bank has unveiled its bond-buying plan to address Europe's ongoing debt crisis, focus has shifted to the Fed. There are growing expectations in the market that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will introduce new stimulus measures when the central bank meets on Wednesday and Thursday.

Last week's softer-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data increased hopes that some easing measures will be launched this week, though there are also fears that if the Fed disappoints, there could be a larger pullback in the market.

The other major risk event that investors are preparing for is Wednesday's ruling by the German Constitutional Court over the legality of participating in Europe's permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism.

The yen remained stubbornly strong against the U.S. dollar, firming further to Y78.19 early Tuesday, adding pressure to Japan's Nikkei, which was down 0.9%. Technology stocks led the market lower, influenced by Monday's selloff in Intel after the U.S. chipmaker Friday made a downward revision to its third quarter revenue outlook. Local manufacturers of semiconductors were among Tuesday's losers: Tokyo Electron lost 1.1% and Toshiba dropped 0.8%.

Panasonic fell 2.0% in Tokyo after ratings agency Moody's Investors Services downgraded the electronics company's credit rating by two notches to Baa1.

South Korea's Kospi was down 0.4%, as investors awaited the Bank of Korea's rate decision due later this week. Chipmaker SK Hynix lost 1.6%.

In Australia, the S&P ASX 200 was down 0.2%, shrugging off a 6.7% rise in spot iron ore prices overnight. Fortescue Metals Group dropped 1.6% and Rio Tinto shed 0.4%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120910-714538.html

BTG’s Esteves Drives ‘Better Than Goldman’ Rise in Bank’s Clout
As UBS AG’s losses from subprime- mortgage bets swelled in early 2008, Andre Esteves, already a billionaire as he neared 40, approached his 150-year-old employer with a deal.The Rio de Janeiro native would supply UBS with much-needed capital two years after the Swiss giant had paid him and his partners $3.1 billion for their Brazilian investment bank. In return, Esteves sought a controlling stake, people familiar with the plans say. UBS’s board rejected the proposal, and Esteves soon quit as global head of fixed income.Enlarge imageCEO Andre Esteves Leads Brazilian Bank Grupo BTG Pactual Andre Esteves, chief executive officer of Grupo BTG Pactual, jokes that his bank's initials stand for `Better Than Goldman.' Photographer: Gabriel Rinaldi/ Bloomberg Markets via BloombergWith UBS’s cash crunch deepening in 2009, Esteves and some former partners offered $2.5 billion to repurchase their firm. This time, UBS accepted. Since then, Esteves, 44, has fashioned what’s now Grupo BTG Pactual into a regional power to challenge weakened global rivals and still-sturdy local institutions, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its October special issue on the 50 Most Influential people in global finance.With his bank No. 1 in Brazilian equity underwriting, Esteves jokes that BTG -- officially Banking and Trading Group - - stands for Better Than Goldman.Esteves is leading a shift from a Wall Street-dominated universe as he amasses clout in the largest emerging economy after China. Aiding him is what he calls global finance’s worst moment: misbehavior ranging from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s multibillion-dollar derivatives loss to the rigging by Barclays Plc and other firms of the London interbank offered rate.

‘Courage and Guts’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/btg-s-esteves-drives-better-than-goldman-rise-in-bank-s-clout.html

Big Banks Hide Risk Transforming Collateral for Traders

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. are helping clients find an extra $2.6 trillion to back derivatives trades amid signs that a shortage of quality collateral will erode efforts to safeguard the financial system.Starting next year, new rules designed to prevent another meltdown will force traders to post U.S. Treasury bonds or other top-rated holdings to guarantee more of their bets. The change takes effect as the $10.8 trillion market for Treasuries is already stretched thin by banks rebuilding balance sheets and investors seeking safety, leaving fewer bonds available to backstop the $648 trillion derivatives market.Enlarge imageBig Banks Hide Risk Transforming Collateral for Derivative A man sweeps the sidewalk outside the JP Morgan Chase Inc. headquarters in New York. Photographer: Peter Foley/BloombergThe solution: At least seven banks plan to let customers swap lower-rated securities that don’t meet standards in return for a loan of Treasuries or similar holdings that do qualify, a process dubbed “collateral transformation.” That’s raising concerns among investors, bank executives and academics that measures intended to avert risk are hiding it instead.“The dealers look after their own interests, and they won’t necessarily look after the systemic risks that are associated with this,” said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University who has studied the derivatives and securities-lending markets. “Regulators are probably going to become aware of it once the practice gets big enough.”Adding to the concern is the reaction of central clearinghouses, which collect from losers on derivatives trades and pay off winners. Some have responded to the collateral shortage by lowering standards, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange accepting bonds rated four levels above junk.

Transformation Fees

The potential reward for revenue-starved banks is an expanded securities-lending market that could generate billions of dollars in fees. JPMorgan and Bank of America, which have thebiggest derivatives businesses among U.S. bank holding companies with a combined $140 trillion of the instruments, are already marketing their new collateral-transformation desks, people with knowledge of the operations said.The list also includes Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Barclays Plc (BARC), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and State Street Corp. (STT), said the people, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.Derivatives allow buyers to bet on the direction of currencies, interest rates and markets to protect their holdings, insure against defaults on bonds or lock in a price on commodities. More than 90 percent of the trades are privately negotiated, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That exempts them from the rules of futures exchanges, which require an initial collateral posting as a good-faith deposit to ensure bets are covered. Traders have to post more collateral, usually in cash, when positions move against them.

Central Clearinghouses

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-10/big-banks-hide-risk-transforming-collateral-for-traders.html